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Natural hazard risk in Polk County, Florida

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively High (score 96.5 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$212.6 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1977
40[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$45.8 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
171[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall natural hazard risk for Polk County, Florida as Relatively High compared with other US counties[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores within the county are strong wind, lightning and hurricane[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA estimates Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Polk County at $212.6 million a year[1]. The largest parts of that estimate come from hurricane ($92.3 million a year), inland flooding ($64.9 million a year) and strong wind ($24.5 million a year)[7]. Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of average yearly loss, and the index is not meant to predict next year's damage[8]. FEMA rates social vulnerability as Relatively Moderate (score 49.8)[9]. FEMA rates community resilience as Relatively Low (score 27.3)[10]. Social vulnerability describes how susceptible social groups are to harm from natural hazards, and community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards[9][10].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
Strong WindVery High$24.5 million[11]
LightningVery High$6.4 million[12]
HurricaneVery High$92.3 million[13]
WildfireRelatively Moderate$6.7 million[14]
Inland FloodingRelatively High$64.9 million[15]
TornadoRelatively High$9.4 million[16]
Heat WaveRelatively Moderate$4.3 million[17]
Cold WaveRelatively Moderate$2.6 million[18]
HailRelatively Moderate$596,000[19]
DroughtRelatively Moderate$533,000[20]
LandslideRelatively Low$3,310[21]
EarthquakeVery Low$281,000[22]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: avalanche, coastal flooding, ice storm, tsunami, volcanic activity[23].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityRelatively Moderate49.8[9]
Community resilienceRelatively Low27.3[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively High (score 94.6) for Polk County compared with other US counties[15]. OpenFEMA lists 7,144 residential flood insurance contracts in force as of 2026-08-03, a penetration rate of 2.6% across the county[24]. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area, 36.8% of homes are insured[24]. OpenFEMA's NFIP claims show 1,671 claims filed for losses from 1978 to 2026, and NFIP paid $45.8 million in total[3]. To learn about a specific address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[25].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[15] Relatively High, $64.9 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[24] 7,144 of 272,548 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[24] 10,707, of which 3,935 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 1,671 filed, $45.8 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[25]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 40 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Polk County since 1977[2]. Hurricane declarations are the most common type, at 18[2]. The most recent is DR-4834-FL for Hurricane Milton, declared 2024-10-11[26]. NOAA's tornado database records 171 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024[4]. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2024-09-26[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Polk County, since 1977
Incident type Declarations
Hurricane[2] 18
Fire[2] 7
Severe Storm[2] 5
Freezing[2] 5
Tropical Storm[2] 4
Tornado[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
DR-4834-FL[26] Hurricane Milton 2024-10-11
EM-3622-FL[26] Hurricane Milton 2024-10-07
DR-4806-FL[26] Hurricane Debby 2024-08-10
EM-3605-FL[26] Tropical Storm Debby 2024-08-03
DR-4734-FL[26] Hurricane Idalia 2023-08-31

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Hurricanes

Before

  • Know your hurricane risk, including rain, wind and tornadoes far inland from landfall.
  • Learn your evacuation zone and routes, and practice them with your household and pets.
  • Keep insurance policies and ID current, with password-protected digital copies.
  • Clear drains and gutters, bring in outdoor furniture and consider hurricane shutters.
  • Keep your phone charged, buy backup chargers and gather supplies, including medication and pet supplies.

During

  • If you are in a mandatory evacuation zone and officials order an evacuation, leave right away.
  • For high winds, take shelter in a designated storm shelter or an interior room.
  • If you are trapped by flooding, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, hurricanes

Wildfires

Before

  • Sign up for community alerts and watch for air quality alerts.
  • Make sure everyone knows the evacuation plan, including for school, work and other places you go often.
  • Keep a fire-resistant zone of at least 30 feet around your home, clear of leaves and debris.
  • Use fire-resistant building materials and keep a hose long enough to reach every part of your property.
  • Pick a room you can seal off from outside air and keep a portable air cleaner ready.

During

  • Leave right away when authorities tell you to evacuate.
  • If you are trapped, call 9-1-1 with your location and turn on lights to help rescuers find you.
  • If you are not ordered to leave but there is smoke, stay in a safe indoor place or go to a community building with less smoke.

Source: Ready.gov, wildfires

Floods

Before

  • Check your flood risk with FEMA's Flood Map Service Center, and remember that floods do not follow map lines.
  • Sign up for your community's warning system. NOAA Weather Radio also broadcasts alerts.
  • Buy flood insurance through the NFIP well before a disaster. Homeowners policies do not cover flooding, and a new policy typically takes up to 30 days to go into effect.
  • Make a household plan with evacuation routes, shelter locations and what to do in a flash flood.
  • Keep important documents in a waterproof container and make password-protected digital copies.

During

  • If you are told to evacuate, leave right away and never drive around barricades.
  • Do not walk, swim or drive through floodwater. Six inches of moving water can knock you down.
  • If you are trapped in a building, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, floods

Questions people ask

Is Polk County, Florida at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively High for Polk County compared with other US counties[15]. FEMA estimates inland flooding Expected Annual Loss at $64.9 million a year[15].
Is Polk County at risk of hurricanes?
FEMA rates hurricane risk Very High for Polk County compared with other US counties[13]. OpenFEMA lists 18 hurricane declarations that include the county since 1977[2].
Is Polk County at risk of tornadoes?
FEMA rates tornado risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[16]. NOAA's tornado database records 171 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024[4].
How many disasters were declared in Polk County?
OpenFEMA lists 40 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Polk County since 1977[2].
How do I check the flood zone of an address in Polk County?
Look up the address in FEMA's Flood Map Service Center or ask the local floodplain manager[25].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Polk County is $212.6 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively High, score 96.0). Of this, buildings account for $183.2 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for $22.3... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 40 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Polk County since 1977 (23 major disaster, 17 emergency or fire management). By incident type: hurricane 18, fire 7, severe storm 5, freezing 5, tropical storm 4, tornado 1. Biological (such as COVID-19)... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 1,671 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Polk County, 1,083 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $45.8 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid).... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 171 recorded tornadoes touched Polk County. The strongest were rated F4 (most recent of them on 1966-04-04). 2 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2024-09-26. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Polk County is Relatively High, with a Risk Index score of 96.5 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Polk County are strong wind (99.8, Very High), lightning (99.6, Very High), hurricane (98.4, Very High). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published scores; FEMA's scores... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Polk County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are hurricane ($92.3 million a year), inland flooding ($64.9 million a year), strong wind ($24.5 million a year), out of $212.6 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  8. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Polk County is Relatively Moderate (score 49.8). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Polk County is Relatively Low (score 27.3). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Polk County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 99.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $24.5 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 1 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Polk County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 99.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $6.4 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 95.66 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Polk County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 98.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $92.3 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 0.25 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172 years for the Atlantic... FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Polk County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 96.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $6.7 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.009 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Polk County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 94.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $64.9 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 1.36 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 26... FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Polk County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 93.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $9.4 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 2.02 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Polk County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 93.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $4.3 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 3.21 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18... FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Polk County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 76.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.6 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 4.27 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18... FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Polk County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 73.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $596,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 2.2 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Polk County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 71.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $533,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 14.71 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Polk County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 64.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $3,310 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Polk County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 52.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $281,000 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0004 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Polk County: avalanche, coastal flooding, ice storm, tsunami, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  24. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 7,144 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Polk County, out of 272,548 residential structures, a penetration rate of 2.6%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 10,707 residential structures and 3,935 contracts, a... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  25. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  26. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.