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Natural hazard risk in Pasco County, Florida

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively High (score 95.9 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$199.3 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1968
42[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$692.9 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
96[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates the overall natural hazard risk for Pasco County, Florida, as Relatively High compared with other US counties[5]. Within the county, the hazards with the highest FEMA scores are tornado, hurricane and lightning[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA's National Risk Index estimates Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Pasco County at $199.3 million a year, of which buildings account for $164.8 million[1]. This is FEMA's estimate of average yearly economic loss, not money anyone paid, and it is not meant to predict next year's damage[7]. Hurricane has the largest hazard estimate at $77.7 million a year[8], followed by inland flooding at $75.8 million a year[9] and tornado at $27.5 million a year[10]. FEMA rates Social Vulnerability in the county Relatively Low (score 39.6), a measure of how susceptible social groups are to the harm hazards cause[11]. FEMA rates Community Resilience Very Low (score 10.4), a measure of a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards[12].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
TornadoRelatively High$27.5 million[10]
HurricaneVery High$77.7 million[8]
LightningVery High$2.5 million[13]
Inland FloodingRelatively High$75.8 million[9]
WildfireRelatively Moderate$3.8 million[14]
Coastal FloodingRelatively High$6.2 million[15]
Heat WaveRelatively Moderate$3.0 million[16]
Strong WindRelatively Moderate$1.1 million[17]
Cold WaveRelatively Low$1.5 million[18]
EarthquakeVery Low$203,000[19]
LandslideVery Low$922[20]
HailVery Low$116,000[21]
DroughtVery Low$3,270[22]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: avalanche, ice storm, volcanic activity[23].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityRelatively Low39.6[11]
Community resilienceVery Low10.4[12]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk in Pasco County Relatively High (score 95.3 of 100)[9] and coastal flooding risk Relatively High (score 90.8 of 100)[15]. OpenFEMA data as of 2026-08-03 show 23,604 residential flood insurance contracts in force out of 229,196 residential structures, a penetration rate of 10.3%[24]. A HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP claims for losses from 1978 to 2026 counts 14,544 claims, and NFIP paid $692.9 million in total[3]. The year with the most paid claims was 2024, with 4,442[3].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[9] Relatively High, $75.8 million expected loss a year
Coastal Flooding, FEMA risk rating[15] Relatively High, $6.2 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[24] 23,604 of 229,196 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[24] 35,604, of which 16,709 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 14,544 filed, $692.9 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[25]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 42 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Pasco County since 1968, including 21 for hurricanes[2]. The most recent is DR-4834-FL for Hurricane Milton, declared 2024-10-11[26]. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center tornado database records 96 tornadoes that touched the county from 1950 to 2024[4]. The strongest were rated F2, and none were rated F3/EF3 or stronger[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Pasco County, since 1968
Incident type Declarations
Hurricane[2] 21
Severe Storm[2] 6
Freezing[2] 5
Tropical Storm[2] 5
Fire[2] 2
Flood[2] 1
Tornado[2] 1
Coastal Storm[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
DR-4834-FL[26] Hurricane Milton 2024-10-11
EM-3622-FL[26] Hurricane Milton 2024-10-07
DR-4828-FL[26] Hurricane Helene 2024-09-28
EM-3615-FL[26] Tropical Storm Helene 2024-09-24
DR-4806-FL[26] Hurricane Debby 2024-08-10

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Tornadoes

Before

  • Learn the warning signs: a rotating funnel cloud, an approaching cloud of debris or a loud roar like a freight train.
  • Sign up for community warning systems and learn what your local sirens sound like.
  • Pick a safe spot, such as a safe room built to FEMA criteria or an ICC 500 storm shelter, and practice getting there.
  • Include your pets in the household emergency plan.
  • Keep supplies, food, water and medication in case you have to stay home for a long time.

During

  • Go right away to the safe place you picked in advance.
  • Protect your head and neck with your arms and stay away from windows, doors and outside walls.
  • No place in a car is fully safe. If you can get lower than the road, leave the car and lie down there.

Source: Ready.gov, tornadoes

Hurricanes

Before

  • Know your hurricane risk, including rain, wind and tornadoes far inland from landfall.
  • Learn your evacuation zone and routes, and practice them with your household and pets.
  • Keep insurance policies and ID current, with password-protected digital copies.
  • Clear drains and gutters, bring in outdoor furniture and consider hurricane shutters.
  • Keep your phone charged, buy backup chargers and gather supplies, including medication and pet supplies.

During

  • If you are in a mandatory evacuation zone and officials order an evacuation, leave right away.
  • For high winds, take shelter in a designated storm shelter or an interior room.
  • If you are trapped by flooding, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, hurricanes

Floods

Before

  • Check your flood risk with FEMA's Flood Map Service Center, and remember that floods do not follow map lines.
  • Sign up for your community's warning system. NOAA Weather Radio also broadcasts alerts.
  • Buy flood insurance through the NFIP well before a disaster. Homeowners policies do not cover flooding, and a new policy typically takes up to 30 days to go into effect.
  • Make a household plan with evacuation routes, shelter locations and what to do in a flash flood.
  • Keep important documents in a waterproof container and make password-protected digital copies.

During

  • If you are told to evacuate, leave right away and never drive around barricades.
  • Do not walk, swim or drive through floodwater. Six inches of moving water can knock you down.
  • If you are trapped in a building, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, floods

Questions people ask

Is Pasco County at risk of hurricanes?
FEMA rates hurricane risk in Pasco County Very High compared with other US counties (score 98.1 of 100), with Expected Annual Loss of $77.7 million a year[8]. OpenFEMA lists 21 hurricane disaster declarations that include the county since 1968[2].
Does Pasco County get tornadoes?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center tornado database records 96 tornadoes that touched Pasco County from 1950 to 2024, the most recent on 2024-08-28[4]. FEMA rates tornado risk Relatively High compared with other US counties (score 98.4 of 100)[10].
Is Pasco County at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively High (score 95.3 of 100)[9] and coastal flooding risk Relatively High (score 90.8 of 100)[15]. NFIP paid $692.9 million for flood losses in the county from 1978 to 2026[3].
How many federal disasters have been declared in Pasco County?
OpenFEMA lists 42 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Pasco County since 1968, of which 26 were major disaster declarations[2].
How do I check if a Pasco County address is in a flood zone?
Look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center, the official public source for flood maps, or ask the local floodplain manager[25]. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of a single address[25].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Pasco County is $199.3 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively High, score 95.6). Of this, buildings account for $164.8 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for $32.4... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 42 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Pasco County since 1968 (26 major disaster, 16 emergency or fire management). By incident type: hurricane 21, severe storm 6, freezing 5, tropical storm 5, fire 2, flood 1, tornado 1, coastal storm 1.... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 14,544 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Pasco County, 11,907 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $692.9 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 96 recorded tornadoes touched Pasco County. The strongest were rated F2 (most recent of them on 2006-12-25). 0 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2024-08-28. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Pasco County is Relatively High, with a Risk Index score of 95.9 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Pasco County are tornado (98.4, Relatively High), hurricane (98.1, Very High), lightning (97.1, Very High). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published scores; FEMA's scores... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  8. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Pasco County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 98.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $77.7 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 0.26 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172 years for the Atlantic... FEMA National Risk Index
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Pasco County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 95.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $75.8 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 1.75 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 26... FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Pasco County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 98.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $27.5 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 0.91 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Pasco County is Relatively Low (score 39.6). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Pasco County is Very Low (score 10.4). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Pasco County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 97.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.5 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 94.43 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Pasco County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 95.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $3.8 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0053 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), coastal flooding in Pasco County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 90.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $6.2 million a year (rating Relatively High). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 3.687 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Pasco County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 90.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $3.0 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 2.86 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18... FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Pasco County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 75.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.1 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.94 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38... FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Pasco County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 61.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.5 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 4.21 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Pasco County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 45.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $203,000 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0004 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Pasco County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 44.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $922 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Pasco County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 30.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $116,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 1.92 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Pasco County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 19.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $3,270 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 17 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Pasco County: avalanche, ice storm, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically possible there. FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  24. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 23,604 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Pasco County, out of 229,196 residential structures, a penetration rate of 10.3%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 35,604 residential structures and 16,709... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  25. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  26. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.