HazardFacts

All states › Florida › Hillsborough County

Natural hazard risk in Hillsborough County, Florida

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively High (score 98.8 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$494.6 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1968
45[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$1.18 billion[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
152[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates overall natural hazard risk in Hillsborough County as Relatively High, with a score of 98.8 out of 100[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores within the county are lightning, tornado and cold wave[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA's National Risk Index estimates Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards at $494.6 million a year[1]. This is FEMA's estimate of average yearly loss, not money anyone paid[7]. The largest hazard-type values are hurricane ($178.3 million a year), inland flooding ($146.3 million a year) and tornado ($76.8 million a year)[8]. FEMA rates Social Vulnerability Relatively Low, with a score of 36.3[9]. FEMA describes this as how susceptible social groups are to harm from natural hazards[9]. FEMA rates Community Resilience Relatively Low, with a score of 33.2[10]. FEMA describes this as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards[10]. All ratings compare Hillsborough County with other US counties, and the index does not predict next year's losses[7].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
LightningVery High$8.1 million[11]
TornadoVery High$76.8 million[12]
Cold WaveVery High$54.4 million[13]
HurricaneVery High$178.3 million[14]
HailRelatively High$5.7 million[15]
Inland FloodingRelatively High$146.3 million[16]
Heat WaveRelatively High$9.4 million[17]
WildfireRelatively Moderate$4.4 million[18]
Coastal FloodingRelatively High$7.8 million[19]
DroughtRelatively Moderate$1.1 million[20]
Strong WindRelatively Moderate$1.4 million[21]
EarthquakeRelatively Low$735,000[22]
LandslideRelatively Low$3,722[23]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: avalanche, ice storm, volcanic activity[24].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityRelatively Low36.3[9]
Community resilienceRelatively Low33.2[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively High, with an Expected Annual Loss of $146.3 million a year[16]. FEMA rates coastal flooding Relatively High, with an Expected Annual Loss of $7.8 million a year[19]. OpenFEMA lists 54,179 residential flood insurance contracts in force as of 2026-08-03, a penetration rate of 12.1%[25]. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area, 61.4% of homes are insured[25]. OpenFEMA data show 18,556 NFIP claims for losses from 1978 to 2026, and NFIP paid $1.18 billion in total[3]. For the flood zone of an address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[26].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[16] Relatively High, $146.3 million expected loss a year
Coastal Flooding, FEMA risk rating[19] Relatively High, $7.8 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[25] 54,179 of 448,186 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[25] 56,828, of which 34,867 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 18,556 filed, $1.18 billion paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[26]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 45 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Hillsborough County since 1968[2]. Hurricane declarations number 21 of them[2]. The most recent listed is DR-4834-FL for Hurricane Milton, declared 2024-10-11[27]. NOAA's tornado database records 152 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024[4]. The most recent was on 2024-01-09[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Hillsborough County, since 1968
Incident type Declarations
Hurricane[2] 21
Severe Storm[2] 7
Tropical Storm[2] 5
Fire[2] 5
Freezing[2] 4
Tornado[2] 1
Coastal Storm[2] 1
Flood[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
DR-4834-FL[27] Hurricane Milton 2024-10-11
EM-3622-FL[27] Hurricane Milton 2024-10-07
DR-4828-FL[27] Hurricane Helene 2024-09-28
EM-3615-FL[27] Tropical Storm Helene 2024-09-24
DR-4806-FL[27] Hurricane Debby 2024-08-10

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Tornadoes

Before

  • Learn the warning signs: a rotating funnel cloud, an approaching cloud of debris or a loud roar like a freight train.
  • Sign up for community warning systems and learn what your local sirens sound like.
  • Pick a safe spot, such as a safe room built to FEMA criteria or an ICC 500 storm shelter, and practice getting there.
  • Include your pets in the household emergency plan.
  • Keep supplies, food, water and medication in case you have to stay home for a long time.

During

  • Go right away to the safe place you picked in advance.
  • Protect your head and neck with your arms and stay away from windows, doors and outside walls.
  • No place in a car is fully safe. If you can get lower than the road, leave the car and lie down there.

Source: Ready.gov, tornadoes

Winter storms and cold

Before

  • Insulate your home and learn how to keep pipes from freezing.
  • Install and test smoke and carbon monoxide detectors with battery backup.
  • Keep several days of supplies in case the power goes out, including medication and pet needs.
  • Put an emergency kit in your car with jumper cables, sand, blankets, water and snacks, and keep the tank full.

During

  • Under a winter storm warning, find shelter right away.
  • Stay off the roads if you can. If you are stuck in your car, stay inside it.
  • Run generators and grills only outdoors, away from windows, and never heat your home with an oven or stove.

Source: Ready.gov, winter storms and cold

Hurricanes

Before

  • Know your hurricane risk, including rain, wind and tornadoes far inland from landfall.
  • Learn your evacuation zone and routes, and practice them with your household and pets.
  • Keep insurance policies and ID current, with password-protected digital copies.
  • Clear drains and gutters, bring in outdoor furniture and consider hurricane shutters.
  • Keep your phone charged, buy backup chargers and gather supplies, including medication and pet supplies.

During

  • If you are in a mandatory evacuation zone and officials order an evacuation, leave right away.
  • For high winds, take shelter in a designated storm shelter or an interior room.
  • If you are trapped by flooding, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, hurricanes

Questions people ask

Is Hillsborough County at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively High compared with other US counties, with an Expected Annual Loss of $146.3 million a year[16]. FEMA rates coastal flooding Relatively High as well[19].
Is Hillsborough County at risk of tornadoes?
FEMA rates tornado risk Very High compared with other US counties[12]. NOAA's tornado database records 152 tornadoes in the county from 1950 to 2024[4].
Is Hillsborough County at risk of hurricanes?
FEMA rates hurricane risk Very High compared with other US counties, with an Expected Annual Loss of $178.3 million a year[14].
Is Hillsborough County at risk of earthquakes?
FEMA rates earthquake risk Relatively Low compared with other US counties, with an Expected Annual Loss of $735,000 a year[22].
How many disasters have been declared in Hillsborough County?
OpenFEMA lists 45 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include the county since 1968[2].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Hillsborough County is $494.6 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively High, score 98.9). Of this, buildings account for $343.3 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 45 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Hillsborough County since 1968 (26 major disaster, 19 emergency or fire management). By incident type: hurricane 21, severe storm 7, tropical storm 5, fire 5, freezing 4, tornado 1, coastal storm 1, flood... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 18,556 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Hillsborough County, 14,444 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $1.18 billion in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 152 recorded tornadoes touched Hillsborough County. The strongest were rated F4 (most recent of them on 1966-04-04). 1 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2024-01-09. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Hillsborough County is Relatively High, with a Risk Index score of 98.8 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Hillsborough County are lightning (99.6, Very High), tornado (99.6, Very High), cold wave (99.4, Very High). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published scores; FEMA's scores... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  8. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Hillsborough County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are hurricane ($178.3 million a year), inland flooding ($146.3 million a year), tornado ($76.8 million a year), out of $494.6 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Hillsborough County is Relatively Low (score 36.3). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Hillsborough County is Relatively Low (score 33.2). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Hillsborough County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 99.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $8.1 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 97.58 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Hillsborough County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 99.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $76.8 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 1.31 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Hillsborough County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 99.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $54.4 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 4.14 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Hillsborough County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 99.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $178.3 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 0.25 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172 years for the... FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Hillsborough County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 97.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $5.7 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 1.83 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Hillsborough County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 97.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $146.3 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 2.14 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record... FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Hillsborough County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 97.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $9.4 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 3.51 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18... FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Hillsborough County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 95.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $4.4 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0062 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), coastal flooding in Hillsborough County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 92.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $7.8 million a year (rating Relatively High). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 3.687 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Hillsborough County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 83.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.1 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 17.15 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record... FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Hillsborough County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 82.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.4 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.87 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record... FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Hillsborough County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 68.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $735,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0003 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Hillsborough County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 64.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $3,722 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Hillsborough County: avalanche, ice storm, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically possible... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  25. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 54,179 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Hillsborough County, out of 448,186 residential structures, a penetration rate of 12.1%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 56,828 residential structures and 34,867... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  26. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  27. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.