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Natural hazard risk in Osceola County, Florida

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively Moderate (score 91.9 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$117.6 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1977
37[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$25.0 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
43[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index rates overall natural hazard risk in Osceola County as Relatively Moderate, with a Risk Index score of 91.9 out of 100[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores within the county are strong wind, lightning and wildfire[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA rates strong wind and lightning Very High compared with other US counties[6]. FEMA estimates Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards at $117.6 million a year[1]. By FEMA's sorted values, the largest parts of that loss come from inland flooding, strong wind and hurricane, in that order[7]. Expected Annual Loss is a FEMA estimate of average yearly loss, not money anyone paid[8]. FEMA rates Social Vulnerability Relatively Low[9] and Community Resilience Relatively Low[10]. Social vulnerability describes how susceptible social groups are to harm from hazards, and community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from them[9][10].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
Strong WindVery High$26.8 million[11]
LightningVery High$3.9 million[12]
WildfireRelatively Moderate$3.6 million[13]
HurricaneRelatively High$18.2 million[14]
TornadoRelatively High$10.6 million[15]
Inland FloodingRelatively Moderate$52.1 million[16]
Heat WaveRelatively Low$1.4 million[17]
LandslideVery Low$1,173[18]
EarthquakeVery Low$243,000[19]
DroughtRelatively Low$95,000[20]
Cold WaveRelatively Low$538,000[21]
HailVery Low$83,000[22]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: avalanche, coastal flooding, ice storm, tsunami, volcanic activity[23].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityRelatively Low29.9[9]
Community resilienceRelatively Low33.4[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding Relatively Moderate for Osceola County, with an Expected Annual Loss of $52.1 million a year[16]. OpenFEMA lists 7,888 residential flood insurance contracts in force as of 2026-08-03[24]. About 35.9% of homes inside the Special Flood Hazard Area are insured[24]. OpenFEMA NFIP claims data from 1978 to 2026 shows 1,032 claims filed for losses in the county, and NFIP paid $25.0 million in total[3]. County ratings do not tell you the flood zone of an address, so use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[25].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[16] Relatively Moderate, $52.1 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[24] 7,888 of 131,130 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[24] 14,370, of which 5,159 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 1,032 filed, $25.0 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[25]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 37 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Osceola County since 1977[2]. Hurricane declarations number 21 of them[2]. The most recent listed is DR-4834-FL for Hurricane Milton, declared 2024-10-11[26]. NOAA's tornado database records 43 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Osceola County, since 1977
Incident type Declarations
Hurricane[2] 21
Fire[2] 5
Freezing[2] 4
Tropical Storm[2] 4
Severe Storm[2] 3
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
DR-4834-FL[26] Hurricane Milton 2024-10-11
EM-3622-FL[26] Hurricane Milton 2024-10-07
DR-4806-FL[26] Hurricane Debby 2024-08-10
EM-3605-FL[26] Tropical Storm Debby 2024-08-03
DR-4734-FL[26] Hurricane Idalia 2023-08-31

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Wildfires

Before

  • Sign up for community alerts and watch for air quality alerts.
  • Make sure everyone knows the evacuation plan, including for school, work and other places you go often.
  • Keep a fire-resistant zone of at least 30 feet around your home, clear of leaves and debris.
  • Use fire-resistant building materials and keep a hose long enough to reach every part of your property.
  • Pick a room you can seal off from outside air and keep a portable air cleaner ready.

During

  • Leave right away when authorities tell you to evacuate.
  • If you are trapped, call 9-1-1 with your location and turn on lights to help rescuers find you.
  • If you are not ordered to leave but there is smoke, stay in a safe indoor place or go to a community building with less smoke.

Source: Ready.gov, wildfires

Hurricanes

Before

  • Know your hurricane risk, including rain, wind and tornadoes far inland from landfall.
  • Learn your evacuation zone and routes, and practice them with your household and pets.
  • Keep insurance policies and ID current, with password-protected digital copies.
  • Clear drains and gutters, bring in outdoor furniture and consider hurricane shutters.
  • Keep your phone charged, buy backup chargers and gather supplies, including medication and pet supplies.

During

  • If you are in a mandatory evacuation zone and officials order an evacuation, leave right away.
  • For high winds, take shelter in a designated storm shelter or an interior room.
  • If you are trapped by flooding, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, hurricanes

Tornadoes

Before

  • Learn the warning signs: a rotating funnel cloud, an approaching cloud of debris or a loud roar like a freight train.
  • Sign up for community warning systems and learn what your local sirens sound like.
  • Pick a safe spot, such as a safe room built to FEMA criteria or an ICC 500 storm shelter, and practice getting there.
  • Include your pets in the household emergency plan.
  • Keep supplies, food, water and medication in case you have to stay home for a long time.

During

  • Go right away to the safe place you picked in advance.
  • Protect your head and neck with your arms and stay away from windows, doors and outside walls.
  • No place in a car is fully safe. If you can get lower than the road, leave the car and lie down there.

Source: Ready.gov, tornadoes

Questions people ask

Is Osceola County at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding Relatively Moderate for Osceola County compared with other US counties[16]. FEMA's sorted values show inland flooding as the largest source of Expected Annual Loss[7].
Does Osceola County get tornadoes?
NOAA's tornado database records 43 tornadoes touching Osceola County from 1950 to 2024[4]. FEMA rates tornado risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[15].
Is Osceola County at risk of hurricanes?
FEMA rates hurricane risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[14]. OpenFEMA lists 21 hurricane declarations that include the county since 1977[2].
How many disasters have been declared in Osceola County?
OpenFEMA lists 37 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Osceola County since 1977[2].
How do I check my flood zone in Osceola County?
Look up your address in FEMA's Flood Map Service Center or ask the local floodplain manager[25].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Osceola County is $117.6 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively Moderate, score 92.1). Of this, buildings account for $101.2 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 37 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Osceola County since 1977 (21 major disaster, 16 emergency or fire management). By incident type: hurricane 21, fire 5, freezing 4, tropical storm 4, severe storm 3. Biological (such as COVID-19) and... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 1,032 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Osceola County, 569 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $25.0 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid).... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 43 recorded tornadoes touched Osceola County. The strongest were rated F4 (most recent of them on 1966-04-04). 2 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2024-10-09. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Osceola County is Relatively Moderate, with a Risk Index score of 91.9 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Osceola County are strong wind (99.8, Very High), lightning (98.5, Very High), wildfire (94.8, Relatively Moderate). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published scores; FEMA's... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Osceola County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are inland flooding ($52.1 million a year), strong wind ($26.8 million a year), hurricane ($18.2 million a year), out of $117.6 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  8. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Osceola County is Relatively Low (score 29.9). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Osceola County is Relatively Low (score 33.4). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Osceola County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 99.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $26.8 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 0.94 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Osceola County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 98.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $3.9 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 88.18 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Osceola County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 94.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $3.6 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0117 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Osceola County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 94.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $18.2 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 0.27 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172 years... FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Osceola County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 93.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $10.6 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 1.07 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Osceola County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 92.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $52.1 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.61 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of... FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Osceola County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 77.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.4 million a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 1.95 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Osceola County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 46.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1,173 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Osceola County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 46.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $243,000 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0004 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Osceola County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 43.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $95,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 21.42 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Osceola County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 34.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $538,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 3.64 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Osceola County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 21.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $83,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 1.97 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Osceola County: avalanche, coastal flooding, ice storm, tsunami, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  24. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 7,888 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Osceola County, out of 131,130 residential structures, a penetration rate of 6%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 14,370 residential structures and 5,159 contracts,... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  25. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  26. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.