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Natural hazard risk in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively High (score 95.0 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$170.0 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1972
20[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$32.8 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
37[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index rates overall natural hazard risk in Lancaster County as Relatively High, with a score of 95.0 out of 100 compared with other US counties[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores within the county are winter weather, inland flooding and lightning[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA estimates Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards at $170.0 million a year in Lancaster County[1]. FEMA's hazard-type loss values are largest for inland flooding ($110.6 million a year), hurricane ($23.6 million a year) and earthquake ($9.6 million a year)[7]. Expected Annual Loss is a FEMA estimate of average yearly loss, and the index is not meant to predict next year's damage[8]. FEMA rates Social Vulnerability as Relatively Moderate, which describes how susceptible social groups are to harm from natural hazards[9]. FEMA rates Community Resilience as Relatively High, which describes a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards[10].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
Winter WeatherVery High$2.2 million[11]
Inland FloodingRelatively High$110.6 million[12]
LightningRelatively High$2.2 million[13]
HurricaneRelatively High$23.6 million[14]
Heat WaveRelatively Moderate$5.1 million[15]
EarthquakeRelatively Moderate$9.6 million[16]
Strong WindRelatively High$2.2 million[17]
Cold WaveRelatively High$7.5 million[18]
DroughtRelatively Moderate$1.5 million[19]
HailRelatively Moderate$1.0 million[20]
Ice StormRelatively Moderate$471,000[21]
TornadoRelatively Moderate$3.8 million[22]
LandslideRelatively Low$7,904[23]
WildfireVery Low$21,000[24]
AvalancheVery Low$33[25]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity[26].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityRelatively Moderate43.5[9]
Community resilienceRelatively High70.0[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk in Lancaster County as Relatively High, with a score of 96.9 out of 100[12]. NFIP data from OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03, list 678 residential flood insurance contracts in force[27]. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area, 27.3% of homes are insured[27]. OpenFEMA records 2,106 NFIP claims for losses from 1978 to 2026, and NFIP paid $32.8 million in total[3]. To check an address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[28].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[12] Relatively High, $110.6 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[27] 678 of 184,744 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[27] 1,544, of which 421 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 2,106 filed, $32.8 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[28]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 20 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Lancaster County since 1972[2]. By incident type, flood accounts for 7, severe storm 4, snowstorm 4, hurricane 4 and severe ice storm 1[2]. The most recent is DR-4267-PA, a severe winter storm and snowstorm declared 2016-03-23[29]. NOAA's tornado database records 37 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024, and the most recent was on 2023-08-07[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Lancaster County, since 1972
Incident type Declarations
Flood[2] 7
Severe Storm[2] 4
Snowstorm[2] 4
Hurricane[2] 4
Severe Ice Storm[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
DR-4267-PA[29] Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm 2016-03-23
EM-3367-PA[29] Severe Winter Storm 2014-02-06
EM-3356-PA[29] Hurricane Sandy 2012-10-29
DR-4030-PA[29] Tropical Storm Lee 2011-09-12
EM-3340-PA[29] Remnants Of Tropical Storm Lee 2011-09-08

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Winter storms and cold

Before

  • Insulate your home and learn how to keep pipes from freezing.
  • Install and test smoke and carbon monoxide detectors with battery backup.
  • Keep several days of supplies in case the power goes out, including medication and pet needs.
  • Put an emergency kit in your car with jumper cables, sand, blankets, water and snacks, and keep the tank full.

During

  • Under a winter storm warning, find shelter right away.
  • Stay off the roads if you can. If you are stuck in your car, stay inside it.
  • Run generators and grills only outdoors, away from windows, and never heat your home with an oven or stove.

Source: Ready.gov, winter storms and cold

Floods

Before

  • Check your flood risk with FEMA's Flood Map Service Center, and remember that floods do not follow map lines.
  • Sign up for your community's warning system. NOAA Weather Radio also broadcasts alerts.
  • Buy flood insurance through the NFIP well before a disaster. Homeowners policies do not cover flooding, and a new policy typically takes up to 30 days to go into effect.
  • Make a household plan with evacuation routes, shelter locations and what to do in a flash flood.
  • Keep important documents in a waterproof container and make password-protected digital copies.

During

  • If you are told to evacuate, leave right away and never drive around barricades.
  • Do not walk, swim or drive through floodwater. Six inches of moving water can knock you down.
  • If you are trapped in a building, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, floods

Hurricanes

Before

  • Know your hurricane risk, including rain, wind and tornadoes far inland from landfall.
  • Learn your evacuation zone and routes, and practice them with your household and pets.
  • Keep insurance policies and ID current, with password-protected digital copies.
  • Clear drains and gutters, bring in outdoor furniture and consider hurricane shutters.
  • Keep your phone charged, buy backup chargers and gather supplies, including medication and pet supplies.

During

  • If you are in a mandatory evacuation zone and officials order an evacuation, leave right away.
  • For high winds, take shelter in a designated storm shelter or an interior room.
  • If you are trapped by flooding, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, hurricanes

Questions people ask

Is Lancaster County at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk in Lancaster County as Relatively High compared with other US counties[12]. OpenFEMA records 2,106 NFIP claims for losses from 1978 to 2026[3].
Does Lancaster County get tornadoes?
NOAA's tornado database records 37 tornadoes touching Lancaster County from 1950 to 2024[4]. FEMA rates tornado risk Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties[22].
Is Lancaster County at risk of earthquakes?
FEMA rates earthquake risk in Lancaster County as Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties[16]. FEMA estimates earthquake Expected Annual Loss at $9.6 million a year[16].
How many disasters have been declared in Lancaster County?
OpenFEMA lists 20 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Lancaster County since 1972[2].
How do I check my flood zone in Lancaster County?
Look up an address in FEMA's Flood Map Service Center or ask the local floodplain manager[28]. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of one address[28].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Lancaster County is $170.0 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively Moderate, score 94.8). Of this, buildings account for $131.4 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 20 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Lancaster County since 1972 (14 major disaster, 6 emergency or fire management). By incident type: flood 7, severe storm 4, snowstorm 4, hurricane 4, severe ice storm 1. Biological (such as COVID-19) and... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 2,106 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Lancaster County, 1,742 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $32.8 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 37 recorded tornadoes touched Lancaster County. The strongest were rated F3 (most recent of them on 1950-11-04). 1 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2023-08-07. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Lancaster County is Relatively High, with a Risk Index score of 95.0 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Lancaster County are winter weather (99.4, Very High), inland flooding (96.9, Relatively High), lightning (96.3, Relatively High). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Lancaster County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are inland flooding ($110.6 million a year), hurricane ($23.6 million a year), earthquake ($9.6 million a year), out of $170.0 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  8. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Lancaster County is Relatively Moderate (score 43.5). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Lancaster County is Relatively High (score 70.0). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), winter weather in Lancaster County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 99.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.2 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 12.27 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Lancaster County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 96.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $110.6 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 3.43 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of... FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Lancaster County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 96.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.2 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 36.02 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Lancaster County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 95.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $23.6 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 0.08 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172 years... FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Lancaster County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 94.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $5.1 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 5.26 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of... FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Lancaster County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 93.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $9.6 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0015 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Lancaster County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 91.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.2 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 6.71 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Lancaster County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 90.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $7.5 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 1.16 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Lancaster County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 88.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.5 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 4.34 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of... FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Lancaster County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 83.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.0 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 2.71 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), ice storm in Lancaster County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 82.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $471,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 1.21 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 68... FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Lancaster County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 79.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $3.8 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.59 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38... FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Lancaster County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 73.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $7,904 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Lancaster County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 37.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $21,000 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  25. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), avalanche in Lancaster County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 19.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $33 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.01 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 28 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  26. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Lancaster County: coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically possible... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  27. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 678 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Lancaster County, out of 184,744 residential structures, a penetration rate of 0.4%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 1,544 residential structures and 421 contracts, a... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  28. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  29. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.