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Natural hazard risk in Marion County, Florida

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively High (score 94.7 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$128.4 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1968
36[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$6.0 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
63[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index rates overall natural hazard risk in Marion County as Relatively High, with a score of 94.7 out of 100[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores within the county are lightning, hurricane and tornado[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA rates overall risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[5]. FEMA estimates Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards at $128.4 million a year[1]. This is an estimate of average yearly loss, not money anyone paid[7]. The largest hazard-type estimates are hurricane at $52.6 million a year, inland flooding at $41.9 million a year and tornado at $14.7 million a year[8]. FEMA rates Social Vulnerability Relatively High, which describes how susceptible social groups are to harm from natural hazards[9]. FEMA rates Community Resilience Very Low, which describes a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards[10].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
LightningVery High$3.3 million[11]
HurricaneRelatively High$52.6 million[12]
TornadoRelatively High$14.7 million[13]
WildfireRelatively Moderate$5.1 million[14]
Strong WindRelatively High$2.0 million[15]
Inland FloodingRelatively Moderate$41.9 million[16]
Heat WaveRelatively Moderate$2.4 million[17]
Cold WaveRelatively High$5.8 million[18]
EarthquakeRelatively Low$417,000[19]
LandslideVery Low$2,010[20]
DroughtRelatively Low$69,000[21]
Coastal FloodingVery Low$1,303[22]
HailVery Low$55,000[23]
Winter WeatherVery Low$0[24]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: avalanche, ice storm, tsunami, volcanic activity[25].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityRelatively High69.6[9]
Community resilienceVery Low16.5[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding Relatively Moderate and coastal flooding Very Low compared with other US counties[16][22]. OpenFEMA lists 3,398 residential flood insurance contracts in force, a penetration rate of 2%[26]. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area, 21.9% of homes are insured[26]. OpenFEMA lists 250 NFIP claims for losses in the county from 1978 to 2026, and NFIP paid $6.0 million in total[3]. To learn about the flood zone of a specific address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[27].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[16] Relatively Moderate, $41.9 million expected loss a year
Coastal Flooding, FEMA risk rating[22] Very Low, $1,303 expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[26] 3,398 of 171,467 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[26] 7,895, of which 1,728 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 250 filed, $6.0 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[27]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 36 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Marion County since 1968[2]. Hurricane declarations number 19 of them[2]. The most recent listed is DR-4834-FL for Hurricane Milton, declared 2024-10-11[28]. NOAA's tornado database records 63 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Marion County, since 1968
Incident type Declarations
Hurricane[2] 19
Tropical Storm[2] 5
Fire[2] 4
Severe Storm[2] 4
Freezing[2] 3
Tornado[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
DR-4834-FL[28] Hurricane Milton 2024-10-11
EM-3622-FL[28] Hurricane Milton 2024-10-07
DR-4828-FL[28] Hurricane Helene 2024-09-28
EM-3615-FL[28] Tropical Storm Helene 2024-09-24
DR-4806-FL[28] Hurricane Debby 2024-08-10

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Hurricanes

Before

  • Know your hurricane risk, including rain, wind and tornadoes far inland from landfall.
  • Learn your evacuation zone and routes, and practice them with your household and pets.
  • Keep insurance policies and ID current, with password-protected digital copies.
  • Clear drains and gutters, bring in outdoor furniture and consider hurricane shutters.
  • Keep your phone charged, buy backup chargers and gather supplies, including medication and pet supplies.

During

  • If you are in a mandatory evacuation zone and officials order an evacuation, leave right away.
  • For high winds, take shelter in a designated storm shelter or an interior room.
  • If you are trapped by flooding, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, hurricanes

Tornadoes

Before

  • Learn the warning signs: a rotating funnel cloud, an approaching cloud of debris or a loud roar like a freight train.
  • Sign up for community warning systems and learn what your local sirens sound like.
  • Pick a safe spot, such as a safe room built to FEMA criteria or an ICC 500 storm shelter, and practice getting there.
  • Include your pets in the household emergency plan.
  • Keep supplies, food, water and medication in case you have to stay home for a long time.

During

  • Go right away to the safe place you picked in advance.
  • Protect your head and neck with your arms and stay away from windows, doors and outside walls.
  • No place in a car is fully safe. If you can get lower than the road, leave the car and lie down there.

Source: Ready.gov, tornadoes

Wildfires

Before

  • Sign up for community alerts and watch for air quality alerts.
  • Make sure everyone knows the evacuation plan, including for school, work and other places you go often.
  • Keep a fire-resistant zone of at least 30 feet around your home, clear of leaves and debris.
  • Use fire-resistant building materials and keep a hose long enough to reach every part of your property.
  • Pick a room you can seal off from outside air and keep a portable air cleaner ready.

During

  • Leave right away when authorities tell you to evacuate.
  • If you are trapped, call 9-1-1 with your location and turn on lights to help rescuers find you.
  • If you are not ordered to leave but there is smoke, stay in a safe indoor place or go to a community building with less smoke.

Source: Ready.gov, wildfires

Questions people ask

Is Marion County at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding Relatively Moderate and coastal flooding Very Low compared with other US counties[16][22]. FEMA estimates inland flooding Expected Annual Loss at $41.9 million a year[16].
Is Marion County at risk of tornadoes?
FEMA rates tornado risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[13]. NOAA's tornado database records 63 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024[4].
Is Marion County at risk of hurricanes?
FEMA rates hurricane risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[12]. OpenFEMA lists 19 hurricane declarations that include the county[2].
How many disasters were declared in Marion County?
OpenFEMA lists 36 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards since 1968[2].
How do I check a flood zone in Marion County?
Look up an address in FEMA's Flood Map Service Center or ask the local floodplain manager[27]. County-level ratings do not give the flood zone of one address[27].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Marion County is $128.4 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively Moderate, score 92.9). Of this, buildings account for $101.2 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 36 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Marion County since 1968 (20 major disaster, 16 emergency or fire management). By incident type: hurricane 19, tropical storm 5, fire 4, severe storm 4, freezing 3, tornado 1. Biological (such as... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 250 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Marion County, 142 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $6.0 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid). Years... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 63 recorded tornadoes touched Marion County. The strongest were rated F3 (most recent of them on 1975-12-31). 1 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2022-07-22. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Marion County is Relatively High, with a Risk Index score of 94.7 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Marion County are lightning (98.9, Very High), hurricane (97.8, Relatively High), tornado (97.2, Relatively High). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published scores; FEMA's... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  8. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Marion County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are hurricane ($52.6 million a year), inland flooding ($41.9 million a year), tornado ($14.7 million a year), out of $128.4 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Marion County is Relatively High (score 69.6). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Marion County is Very Low (score 16.5). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Marion County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 98.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $3.3 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 88.95 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Marion County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 97.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $52.6 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 0.25 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172 years for... FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Marion County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 97.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $14.7 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 1.1 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Marion County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 96.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $5.1 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0043 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Marion County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 93.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.0 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 1.16 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Marion County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 92.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $41.9 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.96 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of... FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Marion County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 90.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.4 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 3.07 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18... FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Marion County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 90.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $5.8 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 1.8 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Marion County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 63.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $417,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0006 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Marion County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 59.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2,010 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Marion County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 43.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $69,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 16.07 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), coastal flooding in Marion County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 24.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1,303 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.975 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Marion County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 20.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $55,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 2.18 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), winter weather in Marion County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 1.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $0 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  25. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Marion County: avalanche, ice storm, tsunami, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  26. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 3,398 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Marion County, out of 171,467 residential structures, a penetration rate of 2%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 7,895 residential structures and 1,728 contracts, a... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  27. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  28. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.