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Natural hazard risk in Alachua County, Florida

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively Moderate (score 90.3 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$89.6 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1993
33[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$8.8 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
45[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index rates overall natural hazard risk in Alachua County as Relatively Moderate, with a score of 90.3 out of 100[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores within the county are lightning, hurricane and wildfire[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA's National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) estimates $89.6 million a year in Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Alachua County[1]. The largest parts come from inland flooding at $35.0 million a year, hurricane at $34.4 million a year and tornado at $7.7 million a year[7]. Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of average yearly loss, and the index is not meant to predict damage in the next year[8]. FEMA rates Social Vulnerability as Relatively Low (score 34.7), which describes how susceptible social groups are to harm from natural hazards[9]. FEMA rates Community Resilience as Very High (score 80.9), which describes a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards[10].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
LightningVery High$2.9 million[11]
HurricaneRelatively High$34.4 million[12]
WildfireRelatively Moderate$3.8 million[13]
TornadoRelatively High$7.7 million[14]
Inland FloodingRelatively Moderate$35.0 million[15]
Heat WaveRelatively Moderate$2.3 million[16]
Strong WindRelatively Moderate$1.4 million[17]
EarthquakeRelatively Low$649,000[18]
Cold WaveRelatively Low$1.4 million[19]
DroughtRelatively Low$77,000[20]
LandslideVery Low$474[21]
HailVery Low$65,000[22]
Winter WeatherVery Low$10,000[23]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: avalanche, ice storm, tsunami, volcanic activity[24].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityRelatively Low34.7[9]
Community resilienceVery High80.9[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk in Alachua County as Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties, with a score of 88.5[15]. OpenFEMA data as of 2026-08-03 lists 2,149 residential flood insurance contracts in force, a penetration rate of 2.5%[25]. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area, 18.4% of homes are insured[25]. A HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA claims from 1978 to 2026 counts 309 NFIP claims, and NFIP paid $8.8 million in total[3]. For the flood zone of an address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[26].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[15] Relatively Moderate, $35.0 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[25] 2,149 of 84,597 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[25] 4,050, of which 744 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 309 filed, $8.8 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[26]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 33 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Alachua County since 1993[2]. By incident type, hurricane accounts for 17 of them[2]. The most recent listed is DR-4834-FL for Hurricane Milton, declared 2024-10-11[27]. NOAA's tornado database records 45 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024, and none were rated F3/EF3 or stronger[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Alachua County, since 1993
Incident type Declarations
Hurricane[2] 17
Tropical Storm[2] 5
Fire[2] 5
Severe Storm[2] 4
Tornado[2] 1
Freezing[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
DR-4834-FL[27] Hurricane Milton 2024-10-11
EM-3622-FL[27] Hurricane Milton 2024-10-07
DR-4828-FL[27] Hurricane Helene 2024-09-28
EM-3615-FL[27] Tropical Storm Helene 2024-09-24
DR-4806-FL[27] Hurricane Debby 2024-08-10

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Hurricanes

Before

  • Know your hurricane risk, including rain, wind and tornadoes far inland from landfall.
  • Learn your evacuation zone and routes, and practice them with your household and pets.
  • Keep insurance policies and ID current, with password-protected digital copies.
  • Clear drains and gutters, bring in outdoor furniture and consider hurricane shutters.
  • Keep your phone charged, buy backup chargers and gather supplies, including medication and pet supplies.

During

  • If you are in a mandatory evacuation zone and officials order an evacuation, leave right away.
  • For high winds, take shelter in a designated storm shelter or an interior room.
  • If you are trapped by flooding, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, hurricanes

Wildfires

Before

  • Sign up for community alerts and watch for air quality alerts.
  • Make sure everyone knows the evacuation plan, including for school, work and other places you go often.
  • Keep a fire-resistant zone of at least 30 feet around your home, clear of leaves and debris.
  • Use fire-resistant building materials and keep a hose long enough to reach every part of your property.
  • Pick a room you can seal off from outside air and keep a portable air cleaner ready.

During

  • Leave right away when authorities tell you to evacuate.
  • If you are trapped, call 9-1-1 with your location and turn on lights to help rescuers find you.
  • If you are not ordered to leave but there is smoke, stay in a safe indoor place or go to a community building with less smoke.

Source: Ready.gov, wildfires

Tornadoes

Before

  • Learn the warning signs: a rotating funnel cloud, an approaching cloud of debris or a loud roar like a freight train.
  • Sign up for community warning systems and learn what your local sirens sound like.
  • Pick a safe spot, such as a safe room built to FEMA criteria or an ICC 500 storm shelter, and practice getting there.
  • Include your pets in the household emergency plan.
  • Keep supplies, food, water and medication in case you have to stay home for a long time.

During

  • Go right away to the safe place you picked in advance.
  • Protect your head and neck with your arms and stay away from windows, doors and outside walls.
  • No place in a car is fully safe. If you can get lower than the road, leave the car and lie down there.

Source: Ready.gov, tornadoes

Questions people ask

Is Alachua County at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk in Alachua County as Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties[15]. FEMA estimates inland flooding Expected Annual Loss at $35.0 million a year[15].
Is Alachua County at risk of hurricanes?
FEMA rates hurricane risk in Alachua County as Relatively High compared with other US counties[12]. OpenFEMA lists 17 hurricane declarations that include the county since 1993[2].
Does Alachua County get tornadoes?
NOAA's tornado database records 45 tornadoes touching Alachua County from 1950 to 2024[4]. FEMA rates tornado risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[14].
Is Alachua County at risk of earthquakes?
FEMA rates earthquake risk in Alachua County as Relatively Low compared with other US counties[18]. FEMA lists Expected Annual Loss from earthquakes at $649,000 a year[18].
How can I check the flood zone of an address in Alachua County?
Look up the address in FEMA's Flood Map Service Center or ask the local floodplain manager[26]. County-level ratings do not show the flood zone of a single address[26].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Alachua County is $89.6 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively Moderate, score 89.7). Of this, buildings account for $73.2 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for $15.2... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 33 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Alachua County since 1993 (16 major disaster, 17 emergency or fire management). By incident type: hurricane 17, tropical storm 5, fire 5, severe storm 4, tornado 1, freezing 1. Biological (such as... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 309 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Alachua County, 217 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $8.8 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid).... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 45 recorded tornadoes touched Alachua County. The strongest were rated F2 (most recent of them on 1986-03-14). 0 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2021-09-18. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Alachua County is Relatively Moderate, with a Risk Index score of 90.3 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Alachua County are lightning (97.6, Very High), hurricane (96.7, Relatively High), wildfire (95.1, Relatively Moderate). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published scores;... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Alachua County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are inland flooding ($35.0 million a year), hurricane ($34.4 million a year), tornado ($7.7 million a year), out of $89.6 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  8. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Alachua County is Relatively Low (score 34.7). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Alachua County is Very High (score 80.9). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Alachua County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 97.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.9 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 84.43 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Alachua County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 96.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $34.4 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 0.22 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172 years... FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Alachua County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 95.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $3.8 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0038 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Alachua County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 90.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $7.7 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.52 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Alachua County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 88.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $35.0 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 1.21 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of... FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Alachua County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 86.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.3 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 3.3 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18... FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Alachua County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 80.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.4 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.99 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38... FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Alachua County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 65.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $649,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0008 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Alachua County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 58.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.4 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 1.84 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Alachua County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 41.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $77,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 19.95 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Alachua County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 35.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $474 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Alachua County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 17.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $65,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 1.79 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), winter weather in Alachua County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 12.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $10,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.05 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Alachua County: avalanche, ice storm, tsunami, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  25. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 2,149 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Alachua County, out of 84,597 residential structures, a penetration rate of 2.5%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 4,050 residential structures and 744 contracts, a... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  26. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  27. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.