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Natural hazard risk in Duval County, Florida

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively High (score 97.2 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$263.9 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1968
39[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$214.7 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
80[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) gives Duval County an overall natural hazard rating of Relatively High compared with other US counties[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores within the county are cold wave, lightning and hurricane[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA estimates Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Duval County at $263.9 million a year[1]. This is FEMA's estimate of average yearly loss, not money anyone paid[7]. FEMA's sorted values show the largest parts come from inland flooding at $134.4 million a year, then hurricane at $64.9 million a year, then cold wave at $25.9 million a year[8]. FEMA rates social vulnerability Relatively Low, which describes how susceptible social groups are to harm from natural hazards[9]. FEMA rates community resilience Relatively High, which describes a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards[10].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
Cold WaveRelatively High$25.9 million[11]
LightningVery High$3.6 million[12]
HurricaneRelatively High$64.9 million[13]
Inland FloodingRelatively High$134.4 million[14]
Heat WaveRelatively High$8.7 million[15]
HailRelatively High$3.6 million[16]
TornadoRelatively High$8.0 million[17]
Coastal FloodingRelatively High$6.5 million[18]
EarthquakeRelatively Moderate$5.4 million[19]
WildfireRelatively Moderate$1.4 million[20]
Strong WindRelatively Moderate$1.4 million[21]
LandslideVery Low$751[22]
DroughtVery Low$5,528[23]
Ice StormVery Low$12,000[24]
Winter WeatherVery Low$5,898[25]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: avalanche, volcanic activity[26].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityRelatively Low39.8[9]
Community resilienceRelatively High62.0[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively High and coastal flooding risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[14][18]. OpenFEMA lists 20,676 residential flood insurance contracts in force in Duval County as of 2026-08-03[27]. OpenFEMA data show 5,859 residential flood insurance contracts for 9,721 residential structures inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area, a rate of 60.3%[27]. NFIP paid $214.7 million on claims for losses in the county from 1978 to 2026[3]. For a specific address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[28].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[14] Relatively High, $134.4 million expected loss a year
Coastal Flooding, FEMA risk rating[18] Relatively High, $6.5 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[27] 20,676 of 328,032 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[27] 9,721, of which 5,859 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 6,064 filed, $214.7 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[28]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 39 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Duval County since 1968, and 22 of them were for hurricanes[2]. The most recent listed is DR-4834-FL for Hurricane Milton, declared 2024-10-11[29]. NOAA's tornado database records 80 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024, and none were rated F3/EF3 or stronger[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Duval County, since 1968
Incident type Declarations
Hurricane[2] 22
Severe Storm[2] 7
Fire[2] 4
Tropical Storm[2] 4
Tornado[2] 1
Freezing[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
DR-4834-FL[29] Hurricane Milton 2024-10-11
EM-3622-FL[29] Hurricane Milton 2024-10-07
DR-4828-FL[29] Hurricane Helene 2024-09-28
DR-4806-FL[29] Hurricane Debby 2024-08-10
EM-3605-FL[29] Tropical Storm Debby 2024-08-03

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Winter storms and cold

Before

  • Insulate your home and learn how to keep pipes from freezing.
  • Install and test smoke and carbon monoxide detectors with battery backup.
  • Keep several days of supplies in case the power goes out, including medication and pet needs.
  • Put an emergency kit in your car with jumper cables, sand, blankets, water and snacks, and keep the tank full.

During

  • Under a winter storm warning, find shelter right away.
  • Stay off the roads if you can. If you are stuck in your car, stay inside it.
  • Run generators and grills only outdoors, away from windows, and never heat your home with an oven or stove.

Source: Ready.gov, winter storms and cold

Hurricanes

Before

  • Know your hurricane risk, including rain, wind and tornadoes far inland from landfall.
  • Learn your evacuation zone and routes, and practice them with your household and pets.
  • Keep insurance policies and ID current, with password-protected digital copies.
  • Clear drains and gutters, bring in outdoor furniture and consider hurricane shutters.
  • Keep your phone charged, buy backup chargers and gather supplies, including medication and pet supplies.

During

  • If you are in a mandatory evacuation zone and officials order an evacuation, leave right away.
  • For high winds, take shelter in a designated storm shelter or an interior room.
  • If you are trapped by flooding, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, hurricanes

Floods

Before

  • Check your flood risk with FEMA's Flood Map Service Center, and remember that floods do not follow map lines.
  • Sign up for your community's warning system. NOAA Weather Radio also broadcasts alerts.
  • Buy flood insurance through the NFIP well before a disaster. Homeowners policies do not cover flooding, and a new policy typically takes up to 30 days to go into effect.
  • Make a household plan with evacuation routes, shelter locations and what to do in a flash flood.
  • Keep important documents in a waterproof container and make password-protected digital copies.

During

  • If you are told to evacuate, leave right away and never drive around barricades.
  • Do not walk, swim or drive through floodwater. Six inches of moving water can knock you down.
  • If you are trapped in a building, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, floods

Questions people ask

Is Duval County at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[14]. FEMA estimates inland flooding Expected Annual Loss at $134.4 million a year[14].
How many disasters have been declared in Duval County?
OpenFEMA lists 39 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Duval County since 1968[2].
Is Duval County at risk of hurricanes?
FEMA rates hurricane risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[13]. FEMA estimates hurricane Expected Annual Loss at $64.9 million a year[13].
Does Duval County have tornadoes?
NOAA's tornado database records 80 tornadoes touching Duval County from 1950 to 2024[4]. FEMA rates tornado risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[17].
How can I check a flood zone?
Look up the address in FEMA's Flood Map Service Center or ask the local floodplain manager[28].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Duval County is $263.9 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively High, score 96.9). Of this, buildings account for $215.1 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for $48.7... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 39 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Duval County since 1968 (23 major disaster, 16 emergency or fire management). By incident type: hurricane 22, severe storm 7, fire 4, tropical storm 4, tornado 1, freezing 1. Biological (such as COVID-19)... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 6,064 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Duval County, 4,534 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $214.7 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid).... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 80 recorded tornadoes touched Duval County. The strongest were rated F2 (most recent of them on 2004-08-12). 0 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2024-06-28. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Duval County is Relatively High, with a Risk Index score of 97.2 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Duval County are cold wave (98.5, Relatively High), lightning (98.5, Very High), hurricane (97.6, Relatively High). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published scores; FEMA's... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  8. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Duval County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are inland flooding ($134.4 million a year), hurricane ($64.9 million a year), cold wave ($25.9 million a year), out of $263.9 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Duval County is Relatively Low (score 39.8). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Duval County is Relatively High (score 62.0). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Duval County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 98.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $25.9 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 3 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Duval County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 98.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $3.6 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 71.25 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Duval County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 97.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $64.9 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 0.27 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172 years for the... FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Duval County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 97.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $134.4 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 3.46 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 26... FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Duval County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 96.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $8.7 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 4.58 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Duval County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 96.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $3.6 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 1.76 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Duval County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 91.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $8.0 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.44 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), coastal flooding in Duval County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 91.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $6.5 million a year (rating Relatively High). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 2.7769 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Duval County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 90.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $5.4 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0011 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Duval County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 89.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.4 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0017 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Duval County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 81.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.4 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.94 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38... FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Duval County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 41.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $751 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Duval County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 21.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $5,528 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 14.88 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), ice storm in Duval County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 17.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $12,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.03 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 68 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  25. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), winter weather in Duval County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 7.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $5,898 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.11 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  26. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Duval County: avalanche, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically possible there. FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  27. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 20,676 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Duval County, out of 328,032 residential structures, a penetration rate of 6.3%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 9,721 residential structures and 5,859 contracts,... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  28. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  29. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.