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Natural hazard risk in Clay County, Florida

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively Moderate (score 81.0 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$57.1 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1992
37[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$76.3 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
27[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index rates overall natural hazard risk in Clay County, Florida as Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores within the county are lightning, hurricane and inland flooding[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA estimates Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Clay County at $57.1 million a year[1]. That is an estimate of average yearly loss, not money anyone paid[7]. FEMA's largest Expected Annual Loss values are inland flooding ($35.2 million a year), hurricane ($9.3 million a year) and tornado ($6.0 million a year)[8]. FEMA rates social vulnerability Very Low, which describes how susceptible social groups are to harm from natural hazards[9]. FEMA rates community resilience Relatively Moderate, which describes a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards[10]. The index does not predict next year's losses[7].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
LightningRelatively High$1.8 million[11]
HurricaneRelatively Moderate$9.3 million[12]
Inland FloodingRelatively Moderate$35.2 million[13]
TornadoRelatively Moderate$6.0 million[14]
WildfireRelatively Low$716,000[15]
Heat WaveRelatively Moderate$2.2 million[16]
EarthquakeRelatively Low$764,000[17]
Coastal FloodingRelatively Low$464,000[18]
Strong WindRelatively Low$406,000[19]
LandslideVery Low$316[20]
DroughtVery Low$2,939[21]
Cold WaveVery Low$206,000[22]
Winter WeatherVery Low$7,956[23]
HailVery Low$21,000[24]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: avalanche, ice storm, volcanic activity[25].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityVery Low12.9[9]
Community resilienceRelatively Moderate51.1[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively Moderate and coastal flooding risk Relatively Low compared with other US counties[13][18]. OpenFEMA lists 4,005 residential flood insurance contracts in force in Clay County as of 2026-08-03, a penetration rate of 5.1%[26]. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area, 48.5% of homes are insured[26]. OpenFEMA records 1,744 NFIP claims for losses from 1978 to 2026, and NFIP paid $76.3 million in total[3]. For a specific address, check FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[27].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[13] Relatively Moderate, $35.2 million expected loss a year
Coastal Flooding, FEMA risk rating[18] Relatively Low, $464,000 expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[26] 4,005 of 78,156 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[26] 3,451, of which 1,673 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 1,744 filed, $76.3 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[27]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 37 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Clay County since 1992[2]. Hurricane declarations number 18 of them[2]. The most recent listed is the Railroad Complex Fire, declared 2026-04-22[28]. NOAA's tornado database records 27 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024, and the strongest were rated F2[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Clay County, since 1992
Incident type Declarations
Hurricane[2] 18
Severe Storm[2] 8
Fire[2] 6
Tropical Storm[2] 4
Freezing[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
FM-5631-FL[28] Railroad Complex Fire 2026-04-22
DR-4834-FL[28] Hurricane Milton 2024-10-11
EM-3622-FL[28] Hurricane Milton 2024-10-07
DR-4828-FL[28] Hurricane Helene 2024-09-28
DR-4806-FL[28] Hurricane Debby 2024-08-10

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Hurricanes

Before

  • Know your hurricane risk, including rain, wind and tornadoes far inland from landfall.
  • Learn your evacuation zone and routes, and practice them with your household and pets.
  • Keep insurance policies and ID current, with password-protected digital copies.
  • Clear drains and gutters, bring in outdoor furniture and consider hurricane shutters.
  • Keep your phone charged, buy backup chargers and gather supplies, including medication and pet supplies.

During

  • If you are in a mandatory evacuation zone and officials order an evacuation, leave right away.
  • For high winds, take shelter in a designated storm shelter or an interior room.
  • If you are trapped by flooding, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, hurricanes

Floods

Before

  • Check your flood risk with FEMA's Flood Map Service Center, and remember that floods do not follow map lines.
  • Sign up for your community's warning system. NOAA Weather Radio also broadcasts alerts.
  • Buy flood insurance through the NFIP well before a disaster. Homeowners policies do not cover flooding, and a new policy typically takes up to 30 days to go into effect.
  • Make a household plan with evacuation routes, shelter locations and what to do in a flash flood.
  • Keep important documents in a waterproof container and make password-protected digital copies.

During

  • If you are told to evacuate, leave right away and never drive around barricades.
  • Do not walk, swim or drive through floodwater. Six inches of moving water can knock you down.
  • If you are trapped in a building, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, floods

Tornadoes

Before

  • Learn the warning signs: a rotating funnel cloud, an approaching cloud of debris or a loud roar like a freight train.
  • Sign up for community warning systems and learn what your local sirens sound like.
  • Pick a safe spot, such as a safe room built to FEMA criteria or an ICC 500 storm shelter, and practice getting there.
  • Include your pets in the household emergency plan.
  • Keep supplies, food, water and medication in case you have to stay home for a long time.

During

  • Go right away to the safe place you picked in advance.
  • Protect your head and neck with your arms and stay away from windows, doors and outside walls.
  • No place in a car is fully safe. If you can get lower than the road, leave the car and lie down there.

Source: Ready.gov, tornadoes

Questions people ask

Is Clay County, Florida at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively Moderate and coastal flooding risk Relatively Low compared with other US counties[13][18]. FEMA lists inland flooding as the largest Expected Annual Loss at $35.2 million a year[8].
Does Clay County get tornadoes?
NOAA's tornado database records 27 tornadoes touching Clay County from 1950 to 2024[4]. FEMA rates tornado risk Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties[14].
How many disasters have been declared in Clay County?
OpenFEMA lists 37 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Clay County since 1992[2].
Is Clay County at risk of hurricanes?
FEMA rates hurricane risk Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties[12]. OpenFEMA lists 18 hurricane declarations since 1992[2].
How do I check my flood zone in Clay County?
Look up your address in FEMA's Flood Map Service Center or ask the local floodplain manager[27]. County ratings do not tell you the flood zone of one address[27].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Clay County is $57.1 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively Moderate, score 85.6). Of this, buildings account for $47.7 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for $9.4... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 37 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Clay County since 1992 (20 major disaster, 17 emergency or fire management). By incident type: hurricane 18, severe storm 8, fire 6, tropical storm 4, freezing 1. Biological (such as COVID-19) and other... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 1,744 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Clay County, 1,383 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $76.3 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid).... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 27 recorded tornadoes touched Clay County. The strongest were rated F2 (most recent of them on 2001-03-29). 0 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2024-02-04. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Clay County is Relatively Moderate, with a Risk Index score of 81.0 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Clay County are lightning (92.3, Relatively High), hurricane (89.7, Relatively Moderate), inland flooding (85.9, Relatively Moderate). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  8. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Clay County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are inland flooding ($35.2 million a year), hurricane ($9.3 million a year), tornado ($6.0 million a year), out of $57.1 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Clay County is Very Low (score 12.9). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Clay County is Relatively Moderate (score 51.1). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 92.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.8 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 80.36 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 89.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $9.3 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 0.22 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172 years... FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 85.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $35.2 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.64 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record... FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 83.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $6.0 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.36 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 82.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $716,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0031 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 82.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.2 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 3.73 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18... FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 64.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $764,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0009 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), coastal flooding in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 56.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $464,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.9003 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 32.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $406,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 1.07 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Clay County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 27.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $316 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Clay County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 17.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2,939 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 16.76 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Clay County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 15.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $206,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 2.42 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), winter weather in Clay County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 8.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $7,956 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.05 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Clay County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 5.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $21,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 2.01 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  25. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Clay County: avalanche, ice storm, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically possible there. FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  26. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 4,005 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Clay County, out of 78,156 residential structures, a penetration rate of 5.1%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 3,451 residential structures and 1,673 contracts, a... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  27. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  28. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.