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Natural hazard risk in Pinal County, Arizona

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively Moderate (score 93.8 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$137.5 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1966
21[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$3.5 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
30[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index rates overall natural hazard risk in Pinal County, Arizona as Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores in this county are heat wave, wildfire and lightning[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA's National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) gives Pinal County a Risk Index score of 93.8 out of 100, a score that compares the county with all US counties[5]. FEMA lists $137.5 million in expected annual loss from all 18 natural hazards[1]. The largest expected losses come from inland flooding, heat wave and wildfire, in that order[7]. Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of average yearly loss, and the index is not meant to predict next year's damage[8]. FEMA rates social vulnerability as Relatively Moderate[9]. FEMA rates community resilience as Very Low, which FEMA describes as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards[10].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
Heat WaveRelatively High$23.6 million[11]
WildfireRelatively High$12.2 million[12]
LightningVery High$2.4 million[13]
Inland FloodingRelatively High$92.4 million[14]
DroughtRelatively High$2.7 million[15]
HailRelatively Moderate$954,000[16]
EarthquakeRelatively Low$1.5 million[17]
Strong WindRelatively Moderate$1.1 million[18]
LandslideVery Low$1,328[19]
TornadoRelatively Low$712,000[20]
AvalancheVery Low$69[21]
HurricaneVery Low$5,069[22]
Winter WeatherVery Low$12,000[23]
Cold WaveVery Low$1,364[24]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: coastal flooding, ice storm, tsunami, volcanic activity[25].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityRelatively Moderate43.7[9]
Community resilienceVery Low13.8[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk in Pinal County as Relatively High compared with other US counties[14]. OpenFEMA lists 839 residential flood insurance contracts in force as of 2026-08-03, a penetration rate of 0.5%[26]. Inside the mapped Special Flood Hazard Area, 20.7% of homes are insured[26]. OpenFEMA NFIP claims data records 150 claims for losses from 1978 to 2026, and NFIP paid $3.5 million in total[3]. To learn about a specific address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[27].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[14] Relatively High, $92.4 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[26] 839 of 173,021 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[26] 2,932, of which 607 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 150 filed, $3.5 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[27]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 21 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Pinal County since 1966[2]. The most recent is the Cody Fire, declared 2025-05-22[28]. NOAA's tornado database records 30 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024, and none were rated F3 or EF3 or stronger[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Pinal County, since 1966
Incident type Declarations
Fire[2] 10
Flood[2] 6
Severe Storm[2] 3
Drought[2] 1
Hurricane[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
FM-5585-AZ[28] Cody Fire 2025-05-22
FM-5505-AZ[28] Shake Fire 2024-07-09
FM-5493-AZ[28] Simmons Fire 2024-05-29
FM-5389-AZ[28] Telegraph Fire 2021-06-06
FM-5385-AZ[28] Margo Fire 2021-04-08

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Extreme heat

Before

  • Learn the signs of heat illness and how to respond.
  • Do not rely on a fan as your main way to stay cool. Fans do not lower body temperature.
  • Find cool public places, such as libraries or malls, or ask your local health department.
  • Keep heat out with window shades, weather stripping and insulation.
  • If you cannot afford cooling costs, contact LIHEAP for help.

During

  • Never leave a person or an animal in a parked car in warm weather.
  • If your home has no air conditioning, go to a cooling center.
  • Wear light, loose clothing, drink plenty of fluids and avoid hard outdoor work in the middle of the day.

Source: Ready.gov, extreme heat

Wildfires

Before

  • Sign up for community alerts and watch for air quality alerts.
  • Make sure everyone knows the evacuation plan, including for school, work and other places you go often.
  • Keep a fire-resistant zone of at least 30 feet around your home, clear of leaves and debris.
  • Use fire-resistant building materials and keep a hose long enough to reach every part of your property.
  • Pick a room you can seal off from outside air and keep a portable air cleaner ready.

During

  • Leave right away when authorities tell you to evacuate.
  • If you are trapped, call 9-1-1 with your location and turn on lights to help rescuers find you.
  • If you are not ordered to leave but there is smoke, stay in a safe indoor place or go to a community building with less smoke.

Source: Ready.gov, wildfires

Floods

Before

  • Check your flood risk with FEMA's Flood Map Service Center, and remember that floods do not follow map lines.
  • Sign up for your community's warning system. NOAA Weather Radio also broadcasts alerts.
  • Buy flood insurance through the NFIP well before a disaster. Homeowners policies do not cover flooding, and a new policy typically takes up to 30 days to go into effect.
  • Make a household plan with evacuation routes, shelter locations and what to do in a flash flood.
  • Keep important documents in a waterproof container and make password-protected digital copies.

During

  • If you are told to evacuate, leave right away and never drive around barricades.
  • Do not walk, swim or drive through floodwater. Six inches of moving water can knock you down.
  • If you are trapped in a building, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, floods

Questions people ask

Is Pinal County at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk in Pinal County as Relatively High compared with other US counties[14]. FEMA lists inland flooding as the largest part of the county's expected annual loss[7].
Does Pinal County get tornadoes?
NOAA's tornado database records 30 tornadoes touching Pinal County from 1950 to 2024[4]. FEMA rates tornado risk Relatively Low compared with other US counties[20].
Is Pinal County at risk of wildfire?
FEMA rates wildfire risk in Pinal County as Relatively High compared with other US counties[12]. OpenFEMA lists 10 fire declarations that include the county[2].
How many disasters have been declared in Pinal County?
OpenFEMA lists 21 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Pinal County since 1966[2].
How do I check my flood zone?
Look up an address in FEMA's Flood Map Service Center or ask the local floodplain manager[27]. County-level ratings do not give the flood zone of a single address[27].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Pinal County is $137.5 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively Moderate, score 93.5). Of this, buildings account for $102.9 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for $31.2... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 21 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Pinal County since 1966 (9 major disaster, 12 emergency or fire management). By incident type: fire 10, flood 6, severe storm 3, drought 1, hurricane 1. Biological (such as COVID-19) and other non-natural... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 150 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Pinal County, 96 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $3.5 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid). Years... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 30 recorded tornadoes touched Pinal County. The strongest were rated F1 (most recent of them on 1993-01-18). 0 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2024-03-07. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Pinal County is Relatively Moderate, with a Risk Index score of 93.8 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Pinal County are heat wave (98.8, Relatively High), wildfire (97.9, Relatively High), lightning (97.0, Very High). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published scores; FEMA's... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Pinal County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are inland flooding ($92.4 million a year), heat wave ($23.6 million a year), wildfire ($12.2 million a year), out of $137.5 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  8. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Pinal County is Relatively Moderate (score 43.7). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Pinal County is Very Low (score 13.8). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Pinal County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 98.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $23.6 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 12.73 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Pinal County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 97.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $12.2 million a year (rating Relatively High). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0023 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Pinal County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 97.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.4 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 41.86 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Pinal County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 96.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $92.4 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 3.89 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 26... FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Pinal County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 95.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.7 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 55.02 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Pinal County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 82.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $954,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.39 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Pinal County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 79.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.5 million a year (rating Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0027 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Pinal County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 75.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.1 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 1.77 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38... FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Pinal County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 50.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1,328 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Pinal County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 37.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $712,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 0.38 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), avalanche in Pinal County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 26.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $69 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.01 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 28 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Pinal County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 18.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $5,069 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.01 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172 years for the Atlantic Basin... FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), winter weather in Pinal County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 15.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $12,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 1.42 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Pinal County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 3.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1,364 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  25. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Pinal County: coastal flooding, ice storm, tsunami, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  26. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 839 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Pinal County, out of 173,021 residential structures, a penetration rate of 0.5%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 2,932 residential structures and 607 contracts, a... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  27. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  28. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.