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Natural hazard risk in Pima County, Arizona

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively High (score 99.1 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$531.4 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1966
13[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$7.9 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
26[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index rates overall natural hazard risk for Pima County, Arizona as Relatively High, with a score of 99.1 out of 100[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores in the county are heat wave, wildfire and inland flooding[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA rates overall risk for Pima County Relatively High compared with other US counties[5]. FEMA lists $531.4 million in expected annual loss from all 18 natural hazards[1]. FEMA's ordering of expected annual loss puts inland flooding ($347.4 million a year) first, then heat wave ($133.1 million a year) and wildfire ($37.6 million a year)[7]. Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of average yearly loss, and it does not predict next year's damage[8]. FEMA rates social vulnerability Relatively Moderate[9] and community resilience Relatively Low[10].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
Heat WaveVery High$133.1 million[11]
WildfireRelatively High$37.6 million[12]
Inland FloodingVery High$347.4 million[13]
LightningVery High$2.5 million[14]
HailRelatively Moderate$1.8 million[15]
EarthquakeRelatively Moderate$6.3 million[16]
Strong WindRelatively Moderate$1.3 million[17]
Winter WeatherRelatively Moderate$200,000[18]
DroughtRelatively Moderate$459,000[19]
LandslideVery Low$2,235[20]
AvalancheVery Low$358[21]
TornadoRelatively Low$688,000[22]
HurricaneVery Low$4,770[23]
Cold WaveVery Low$150[24]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: coastal flooding, ice storm, tsunami, volcanic activity[25].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityRelatively Moderate50.8[9]
Community resilienceRelatively Low20.3[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk Very High compared with other US counties, with a score of 99.5[13]. OpenFEMA data as of 2026-08-03 shows 1,708 flood insurance contracts on 8,094 residential structures inside the Special Flood Hazard Area, so 21.1% of homes inside the SFHA are insured[26]. OpenFEMA lists 584 NFIP claims for losses in the county from 1978 to 2026, and NFIP paid $7.9 million in total[3]. To learn about a specific address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[27].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[13] Very High, $347.4 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[26] 2,620 of 383,267 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[26] 8,094, of which 1,708 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 584 filed, $7.9 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[27]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 13 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Pima County since 1966, and 8 of them were for flood[2]. The most recent is the Big Horn Fire, declared 2020-06-11[28]. NOAA's tornado database records 26 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024, and none were rated F3/EF3 or stronger[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Pima County, since 1966
Incident type Declarations
Flood[2] 8
Fire[2] 3
Severe Storm[2] 1
Hurricane[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
FM-5312-AZ[28] Big Horn Fire 2020-06-11
DR-1660-AZ[28] Severe Storms And Flooding 2006-09-07
EM-3241-AZ[28] Hurricane Katrina Evacuation 2005-09-12
DR-1477-AZ[28] Aspen Fire 2003-07-14
FM-2470-AZ[28] Aspen Fire 2003-06-18

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Extreme heat

Before

  • Learn the signs of heat illness and how to respond.
  • Do not rely on a fan as your main way to stay cool. Fans do not lower body temperature.
  • Find cool public places, such as libraries or malls, or ask your local health department.
  • Keep heat out with window shades, weather stripping and insulation.
  • If you cannot afford cooling costs, contact LIHEAP for help.

During

  • Never leave a person or an animal in a parked car in warm weather.
  • If your home has no air conditioning, go to a cooling center.
  • Wear light, loose clothing, drink plenty of fluids and avoid hard outdoor work in the middle of the day.

Source: Ready.gov, extreme heat

Wildfires

Before

  • Sign up for community alerts and watch for air quality alerts.
  • Make sure everyone knows the evacuation plan, including for school, work and other places you go often.
  • Keep a fire-resistant zone of at least 30 feet around your home, clear of leaves and debris.
  • Use fire-resistant building materials and keep a hose long enough to reach every part of your property.
  • Pick a room you can seal off from outside air and keep a portable air cleaner ready.

During

  • Leave right away when authorities tell you to evacuate.
  • If you are trapped, call 9-1-1 with your location and turn on lights to help rescuers find you.
  • If you are not ordered to leave but there is smoke, stay in a safe indoor place or go to a community building with less smoke.

Source: Ready.gov, wildfires

Floods

Before

  • Check your flood risk with FEMA's Flood Map Service Center, and remember that floods do not follow map lines.
  • Sign up for your community's warning system. NOAA Weather Radio also broadcasts alerts.
  • Buy flood insurance through the NFIP well before a disaster. Homeowners policies do not cover flooding, and a new policy typically takes up to 30 days to go into effect.
  • Make a household plan with evacuation routes, shelter locations and what to do in a flash flood.
  • Keep important documents in a waterproof container and make password-protected digital copies.

During

  • If you are told to evacuate, leave right away and never drive around barricades.
  • Do not walk, swim or drive through floodwater. Six inches of moving water can knock you down.
  • If you are trapped in a building, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, floods

Questions people ask

Is Pima County at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk Very High for Pima County compared with other US counties[13]. FEMA's expected annual loss estimate for inland flooding is $347.4 million a year[7].
Is Pima County at risk of tornadoes?
FEMA rates tornado risk Relatively Low compared with other US counties[22]. NOAA's tornado database records 26 tornadoes in the county from 1950 to 2024[4].
Is Pima County at risk of hurricanes?
FEMA rates hurricane risk Very Low for Pima County compared with other US counties[23].
How many disasters have been declared in Pima County?
OpenFEMA lists 13 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Pima County since 1966[2].
How do I check my flood zone in Pima County?
Flood zones apply to specific properties. Look up an address in FEMA's Flood Map Service Center or ask the local floodplain manager[27].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Pima County is $531.4 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively High, score 99.1). Of this, buildings account for $380.8 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for $150.0... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 13 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Pima County since 1966 (10 major disaster, 3 emergency or fire management). By incident type: flood 8, fire 3, severe storm 1, hurricane 1. Biological (such as COVID-19) and other non-natural declarations... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 584 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Pima County, 343 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $7.9 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid). Years... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 26 recorded tornadoes touched Pima County. The strongest were rated F2 (most recent of them on 1994-07-28). 0 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2024-07-02. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Pima County is Relatively High, with a Risk Index score of 99.1 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Pima County are heat wave (99.7, Very High), wildfire (99.6, Relatively High), inland flooding (99.5, Very High). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published scores; FEMA's... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Pima County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are inland flooding ($347.4 million a year), heat wave ($133.1 million a year), wildfire ($37.6 million a year), out of $531.4 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  8. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Pima County is Relatively Moderate (score 50.8). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Pima County is Relatively Low (score 20.3). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Pima County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 99.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $133.1 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 8.09 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Pima County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 99.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $37.6 million a year (rating Relatively High). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0044 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Pima County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 99.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $347.4 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 12.82 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 26 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Pima County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 97.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.5 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 42.77 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Pima County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 91.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.8 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.24 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Pima County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 91.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $6.3 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0148 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Pima County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 82.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.3 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.79 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), winter weather in Pima County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 80.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $200,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 1.8 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Pima County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 69.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $459,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 57.26 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Pima County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 58.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2,235 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), avalanche in Pima County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 46.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $358 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.01 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 28 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Pima County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 37.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $688,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 0.26 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Pima County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 18.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $4,770 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.02 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172 years for the Atlantic Basin and... FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Pima County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 3.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $150 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  25. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Pima County: coastal flooding, ice storm, tsunami, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  26. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 2,620 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Pima County, out of 383,267 residential structures, a penetration rate of 0.7%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 8,094 residential structures and 1,708 contracts, a... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  27. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  28. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.