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Natural hazard risk in Thurston County, Washington

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively High (score 94.4 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$190.6 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1965
28[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$6.5 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
5[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall natural hazard risk for Thurston County, Washington as Relatively High, with a score of 94.4 out of 100[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores within the county are landslide, earthquake and volcanic activity[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA's score compares the county with all US counties[5]. FEMA estimates Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards at $190.6 million a year[1]. FEMA's sorted loss values show earthquake at $133.7 million a year, then inland flooding at $49.7 million a year, then heat wave at $3.7 million a year[7]. Expected Annual Loss is a FEMA estimate of the average yearly loss, and FEMA says the index does not predict next year's damage[8]. FEMA rates Social Vulnerability as Very Low[9] and Community Resilience as Relatively High[10].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
LandslideRelatively High$1.5 million[11]
EarthquakeRelatively High$133.7 million[12]
Volcanic ActivityRelatively Moderate$195,000[13]
Inland FloodingRelatively Moderate$49.7 million[14]
Heat WaveRelatively Moderate$3.7 million[15]
Ice StormRelatively Moderate$210,000[16]
Coastal FloodingRelatively Low$479,000[17]
WildfireVery Low$84,000[18]
Winter WeatherRelatively Low$95,000[19]
LightningRelatively Low$129,000[20]
Strong WindRelatively Low$282,000[21]
TornadoVery Low$431,000[22]
TsunamiVery Low$91,000[23]
DroughtVery Low$107[24]
HailVery Low$21,000[25]
AvalancheVery Low$3[26]
Cold WaveVery Low$21[27]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: hurricane[28].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityVery Low19.4[9]
Community resilienceRelatively High65.0[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively Moderate and coastal flooding risk Relatively Low compared with other US counties[14][17]. OpenFEMA lists 703 residential flood insurance contracts in force as of 2026-08-03[29]. About 42.8% of homes inside the SFHA are insured[29]. OpenFEMA NFIP claims data from 1978 to 2026 shows 387 claims filed for losses in the county, and NFIP paid $6.5 million in total[3]. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the place to look up a specific address[30].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[14] Relatively Moderate, $49.7 million expected loss a year
Coastal Flooding, FEMA risk rating[17] Relatively Low, $479,000 expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[29] 703 of 77,037 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[29] 948, of which 406 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 387 filed, $6.5 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[30]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 28 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Thurston County since 1965[2]. Flood accounts for 14 of them and severe storm for 9[2]. The most recent in the list is DR-4906-WA, declared 2026-04-07[31]. NOAA's tornado database records 5 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024, and none were rated F3 or EF3 or stronger[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Thurston County, since 1965
Incident type Declarations
Flood[2] 14
Severe Storm[2] 9
Earthquake[2] 2
Volcanic Eruption[2] 1
Fire[2] 1
Coastal Storm[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
DR-4906-WA[31] Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides 2026-04-07
EM-3629-WA[31] Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides 2025-12-12
DR-4650-WA[31] Severe Winter Storms, Snowstorms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding 2022-03-29
FM-5359-WA[31] Bordeaux Road Fire 2020-09-09
DR-4539-WA[31] Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides 2020-04-23

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Earthquakes

Before

  • Practice Drop, Cover, and Hold On with your family and coworkers.
  • Sign up for earthquake alerts that can warn you before shaking starts.
  • Make a plan with an out-of-state contact and a place to meet if you get separated.
  • Anchor heavy items such as bookcases, refrigerators and water heaters, and keep heavy things on low shelves.
  • Consider earthquake insurance. Standard homeowners policies do not cover earthquake damage.

During

  • Drop to your hands and knees, cover your head and neck, and hold on until the shaking stops.
  • Indoors, stay where you are and avoid doorways. Outdoors, move to an open area away from buildings and power lines.
  • If you are driving, pull over, stop and set the parking brake.

Source: Ready.gov, earthquakes

Floods

Before

  • Check your flood risk with FEMA's Flood Map Service Center, and remember that floods do not follow map lines.
  • Sign up for your community's warning system. NOAA Weather Radio also broadcasts alerts.
  • Buy flood insurance through the NFIP well before a disaster. Homeowners policies do not cover flooding, and a new policy typically takes up to 30 days to go into effect.
  • Make a household plan with evacuation routes, shelter locations and what to do in a flash flood.
  • Keep important documents in a waterproof container and make password-protected digital copies.

During

  • If you are told to evacuate, leave right away and never drive around barricades.
  • Do not walk, swim or drive through floodwater. Six inches of moving water can knock you down.
  • If you are trapped in a building, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, floods

Extreme heat

Before

  • Learn the signs of heat illness and how to respond.
  • Do not rely on a fan as your main way to stay cool. Fans do not lower body temperature.
  • Find cool public places, such as libraries or malls, or ask your local health department.
  • Keep heat out with window shades, weather stripping and insulation.
  • If you cannot afford cooling costs, contact LIHEAP for help.

During

  • Never leave a person or an animal in a parked car in warm weather.
  • If your home has no air conditioning, go to a cooling center.
  • Wear light, loose clothing, drink plenty of fluids and avoid hard outdoor work in the middle of the day.

Source: Ready.gov, extreme heat

Questions people ask

Is Thurston County at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively Moderate for Thurston County compared with other US counties[14]. OpenFEMA lists 14 flood-related federal disaster declarations since 1965[2].
Is Thurston County at risk of earthquakes?
FEMA rates earthquake risk Relatively High for Thurston County compared with other US counties, with a score of 98.9 out of 100[12]. FEMA estimates earthquake Expected Annual Loss at $133.7 million a year[12].
Does Thurston County get tornadoes or hurricanes?
FEMA rates tornado risk Very Low for Thurston County compared with other US counties[22]. NOAA's tornado database records 5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2024[4]. FEMA rates hurricane Not Applicable here[28].
How many disasters have been declared in Thurston County?
OpenFEMA lists 28 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Thurston County since 1965[2].
How do I check my flood zone in Thurston County?
Look up the address in FEMA's Flood Map Service Center or ask the local floodplain manager[30]. County-level ratings do not show the flood zone of one address[30].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Thurston County is $190.6 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively High, score 95.4). Of this, buildings account for $134.8 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for $55.8... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 28 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Thurston County since 1965 (25 major disaster, 3 emergency or fire management). By incident type: flood 14, severe storm 9, earthquake 2, volcanic eruption 1, fire 1, coastal storm 1. Biological (such as... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 387 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Thurston County, 306 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $6.5 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid).... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 5 recorded tornadoes touched Thurston County. The strongest were rated F1 (most recent of them on 2004-05-27). 0 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2019-10-04. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Thurston County is Relatively High, with a Risk Index score of 94.4 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Thurston County are landslide (98.9, Relatively High), earthquake (98.9, Relatively High), volcanic activity (94.1, Relatively Moderate). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Thurston County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are earthquake ($133.7 million a year), inland flooding ($49.7 million a year), heat wave ($3.7 million a year), out of $190.6 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  8. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Thurston County is Very Low (score 19.4). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Thurston County is Relatively High (score 65.0). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Thurston County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 98.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.5 million a year (rating Relatively High). FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Thurston County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 98.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $133.7 million a year (rating Relatively High). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0306 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), volcanic activity in Thurston County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 94.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $195,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Thurston County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 90.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $49.7 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.14 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of... FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Thurston County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 90.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $3.7 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 4.26 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of... FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), ice storm in Thurston County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 65.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $210,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.63 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 68... FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), coastal flooding in Thurston County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 58.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $479,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 3.102 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Thurston County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 57.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $84,000 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0001 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), winter weather in Thurston County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 56.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $95,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 6.1 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Thurston County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 30.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $129,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 6.73 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Thurston County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 25.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $282,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 0.01 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Thurston County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 25.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $431,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 0.04 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tsunami in Thurston County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 13.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $91,000 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Thurston County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 13.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $107 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 1.28 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  25. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Thurston County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 6.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $21,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.01 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  26. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), avalanche in Thurston County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 5.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $3 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.01 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 28 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  27. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Thurston County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 2.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $21 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  28. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Thurston County: hurricane. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically possible there. FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  29. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 703 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Thurston County, out of 77,037 residential structures, a penetration rate of 0.9%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 948 residential structures and 406 contracts, a... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  30. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  31. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.