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Natural hazard risk in Hays County, Texas

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively Moderate (score 90.5 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$108.6 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1970
25[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$71.7 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
29[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) gives Hays County an overall Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores within the county are hail, tornado and lightning[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA estimates Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Hays County at $108.6 million a year[1]. This is FEMA's estimate of average yearly loss, and the index does not predict next year's damage[7]. FEMA's sorted Expected Annual Loss values put inland flooding first at $68.1 million a year, then tornado at $18.6 million a year and hail at $5.0 million a year[8]. FEMA rates Social Vulnerability Very Low (score 15.4), which describes how susceptible social groups are to harm from natural hazards[9]. FEMA rates Community Resilience Relatively Moderate (score 57.5), which describes a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards[10]. All ratings compare the county with other US counties[7].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
HailRelatively High$5.0 million[11]
TornadoRelatively High$18.6 million[12]
LightningRelatively High$2.3 million[13]
Winter WeatherRelatively High$720,000[14]
Inland FloodingRelatively Moderate$68.1 million[15]
Heat WaveRelatively Moderate$4.5 million[16]
WildfireRelatively Low$1.3 million[17]
Strong WindRelatively High$2.1 million[18]
Cold WaveRelatively Moderate$4.5 million[19]
DroughtRelatively Moderate$998,000[20]
Ice StormRelatively Moderate$202,000[21]
HurricaneRelatively Low$388,000[22]
LandslideVery Low$1,068[23]
EarthquakeVery Low$59,000[24]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity[25].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityVery Low15.4[9]
Community resilienceRelatively Moderate57.5[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively Moderate (score 93.1) in Hays County, with an Expected Annual Loss rating of Relatively High[15]. NFIP data from OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03, list 1,620 residential flood insurance contracts in force[26]. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area, 44% of homes are insured[26]. A HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA claims from 1978 to 2026 counts 1,489 NFIP claims for losses in the county, and NFIP paid $71.7 million in total[3]. To learn the flood zone of an address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[27].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[15] Relatively Moderate, $68.1 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[26] 1,620 of 70,415 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[26] 2,033, of which 894 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 1,489 filed, $71.7 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[27]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 25 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Hays County since 1970[2]. By incident type, fire accounts for 7 and flood for 6[2]. The most recent listed is DR-4781-TX, declared 2024-05-17[28]. NOAA's tornado database records 29 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024[4]. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2017-02-19[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Hays County, since 1970
Incident type Declarations
Fire[2] 7
Flood[2] 6
Severe Storm[2] 4
Hurricane[2] 3
Severe Ice Storm[2] 2
Drought[2] 1
Tornado[2] 1
Winter Storm[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
DR-4781-TX[28] Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding 2024-05-17
DR-4705-TX[28] Severe Winter Storm 2023-04-21
DR-4586-TX[28] Severe Winter Storms 2021-02-19
EM-3554-TX[28] Severe Winter Storm 2021-02-14
DR-4245-TX[28] Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding 2015-11-25

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Tornadoes

Before

  • Learn the warning signs: a rotating funnel cloud, an approaching cloud of debris or a loud roar like a freight train.
  • Sign up for community warning systems and learn what your local sirens sound like.
  • Pick a safe spot, such as a safe room built to FEMA criteria or an ICC 500 storm shelter, and practice getting there.
  • Include your pets in the household emergency plan.
  • Keep supplies, food, water and medication in case you have to stay home for a long time.

During

  • Go right away to the safe place you picked in advance.
  • Protect your head and neck with your arms and stay away from windows, doors and outside walls.
  • No place in a car is fully safe. If you can get lower than the road, leave the car and lie down there.

Source: Ready.gov, tornadoes

Winter storms and cold

Before

  • Insulate your home and learn how to keep pipes from freezing.
  • Install and test smoke and carbon monoxide detectors with battery backup.
  • Keep several days of supplies in case the power goes out, including medication and pet needs.
  • Put an emergency kit in your car with jumper cables, sand, blankets, water and snacks, and keep the tank full.

During

  • Under a winter storm warning, find shelter right away.
  • Stay off the roads if you can. If you are stuck in your car, stay inside it.
  • Run generators and grills only outdoors, away from windows, and never heat your home with an oven or stove.

Source: Ready.gov, winter storms and cold

Floods

Before

  • Check your flood risk with FEMA's Flood Map Service Center, and remember that floods do not follow map lines.
  • Sign up for your community's warning system. NOAA Weather Radio also broadcasts alerts.
  • Buy flood insurance through the NFIP well before a disaster. Homeowners policies do not cover flooding, and a new policy typically takes up to 30 days to go into effect.
  • Make a household plan with evacuation routes, shelter locations and what to do in a flash flood.
  • Keep important documents in a waterproof container and make password-protected digital copies.

During

  • If you are told to evacuate, leave right away and never drive around barricades.
  • Do not walk, swim or drive through floodwater. Six inches of moving water can knock you down.
  • If you are trapped in a building, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, floods

Questions people ask

Is Hays County at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively Moderate for Hays County, compared with other US counties[15]. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center shows the flood zone for a specific address[27].
Does Hays County get tornadoes?
FEMA rates tornado risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[12]. NOAA's tornado database records 29 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024[4].
Is Hays County at risk of earthquakes?
FEMA rates earthquake risk Very Low for Hays County compared with other US counties[24].
Is Hays County at risk of wildfire?
FEMA rates wildfire risk Relatively Low for Hays County compared with other US counties[17].
How many disasters have been declared in Hays County?
OpenFEMA lists 25 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Hays County since 1970[2].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Hays County is $108.6 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively Moderate, score 91.4). Of this, buildings account for $46.1 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for $61.1... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 25 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Hays County since 1970 (15 major disaster, 10 emergency or fire management). By incident type: fire 7, flood 6, severe storm 4, hurricane 3, severe ice storm 2, drought 1, tornado 1, winter storm 1.... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 1,489 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Hays County, 1,262 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $71.7 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid).... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 29 recorded tornadoes touched Hays County. The strongest were rated F3 (most recent of them on 1953-04-28). 1 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2017-02-19. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Hays County is Relatively Moderate, with a Risk Index score of 90.5 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Hays County are hail (96.7, Relatively High), tornado (96.0, Relatively High), lightning (94.8, Relatively High). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published scores; FEMA's... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  8. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Hays County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are inland flooding ($68.1 million a year), tornado ($18.6 million a year), hail ($5.0 million a year), out of $108.6 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Hays County is Very Low (score 15.4). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Hays County is Relatively Moderate (score 57.5). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Hays County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 96.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $5.0 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 3.9 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Hays County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 96.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $18.6 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 0.33 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Hays County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 94.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.3 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 49.01 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), winter weather in Hays County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 93.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $720,000 a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 3.53 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Hays County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 93.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $68.1 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 3.75 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of... FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Hays County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 92.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $4.5 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 10.21 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18... FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Hays County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 87.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.3 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0013 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Hays County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 86.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.1 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 1.5 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Hays County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 79.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $4.5 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 0.63 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Hays County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 77.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $998,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 80.66 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), ice storm in Hays County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 64.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $202,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.54 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 68 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Hays County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 63.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $388,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 0.04 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172 years for the... FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Hays County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 43.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1,068 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Hays County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 25.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $59,000 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0004 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  25. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Hays County: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  26. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 1,620 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Hays County, out of 70,415 residential structures, a penetration rate of 2.3%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 2,033 residential structures and 894 contracts, a... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  27. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  28. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.