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Natural hazard risk in Bastrop County, Texas

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively Moderate (score 81.1 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$42.5 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1991
29[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$9.9 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
35[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index rates overall natural hazard risk in Bastrop County Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores in the county are tornado, inland flooding and hail[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA rates overall natural hazard risk in Bastrop County Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties[5]. FEMA lists $42.5 million a year in Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards, and its Expected Annual Loss rating is Relatively Low[1]. The largest parts of that loss come from inland flooding ($26.7 million a year), tornado ($7.4 million a year) and cold wave ($2.5 million a year)[7]. Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of average yearly loss, and FEMA says the index is not meant to predict damage in the next year[8]. FEMA rates social vulnerability Relatively Moderate, meaning how susceptible social groups are to harm from natural hazards[9]. FEMA rates community resilience Relatively Low, meaning a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards[10].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
TornadoRelatively High$7.4 million[11]
Inland FloodingRelatively Moderate$26.7 million[12]
HailRelatively Moderate$1.1 million[13]
Heat WaveRelatively Moderate$1.8 million[14]
Winter WeatherRelatively Moderate$199,000[15]
DroughtRelatively Moderate$708,000[16]
Cold WaveRelatively Moderate$2.5 million[17]
WildfireRelatively Low$189,000[18]
LightningRelatively Moderate$481,000[19]
Strong WindRelatively Moderate$872,000[20]
HurricaneRelatively Low$279,000[21]
Ice StormRelatively Low$116,000[22]
LandslideVery Low$778[23]
EarthquakeVery Low$30,000[24]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity[25].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityRelatively Moderate43.6[9]
Community resilienceRelatively Low26.4[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively Moderate in Bastrop County, with a score of 86.2 out of 100[12]. OpenFEMA lists 474 residential flood insurance contracts in force out of 37,299 residential structures, a rate of 1.3%[26]. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area, 21.1% of homes are insured[26]. OpenFEMA's NFIP claims show 331 claims filed for losses from 1978 to 2026, and NFIP paid $9.9 million in total[3]. The years with the most paid claims were 2016 (84), 2015 (80) and 2017 (32)[3]. To learn about the flood zone of one address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[27].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[12] Relatively Moderate, $26.7 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[26] 474 of 37,299 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[26] 1,252, of which 264 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 331 filed, $9.9 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[27]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 29 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Bastrop County since 1991[2]. By incident type, fire accounts for 13 and flood for 5[2]. The most recent listed is DR-4705-TX, a severe winter storm declared on 2023-04-21[28]. NOAA's tornado database records 35 tornadoes that touched the county from 1950 to 2024, and the most recent was on 2022-03-21[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Bastrop County, since 1991
Incident type Declarations
Fire[2] 13
Flood[2] 5
Hurricane[2] 4
Severe Storm[2] 3
Severe Ice Storm[2] 2
Drought[2] 1
Winter Storm[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
DR-4705-TX[28] Severe Winter Storm 2023-04-21
DR-4586-TX[28] Severe Winter Storms 2021-02-19
EM-3554-TX[28] Severe Winter Storm 2021-02-14
DR-4332-TX[28] Hurricane Harvey 2017-08-25
DR-4272-TX[28] Severe Storms And Flooding 2016-06-11

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Tornadoes

Before

  • Learn the warning signs: a rotating funnel cloud, an approaching cloud of debris or a loud roar like a freight train.
  • Sign up for community warning systems and learn what your local sirens sound like.
  • Pick a safe spot, such as a safe room built to FEMA criteria or an ICC 500 storm shelter, and practice getting there.
  • Include your pets in the household emergency plan.
  • Keep supplies, food, water and medication in case you have to stay home for a long time.

During

  • Go right away to the safe place you picked in advance.
  • Protect your head and neck with your arms and stay away from windows, doors and outside walls.
  • No place in a car is fully safe. If you can get lower than the road, leave the car and lie down there.

Source: Ready.gov, tornadoes

Floods

Before

  • Check your flood risk with FEMA's Flood Map Service Center, and remember that floods do not follow map lines.
  • Sign up for your community's warning system. NOAA Weather Radio also broadcasts alerts.
  • Buy flood insurance through the NFIP well before a disaster. Homeowners policies do not cover flooding, and a new policy typically takes up to 30 days to go into effect.
  • Make a household plan with evacuation routes, shelter locations and what to do in a flash flood.
  • Keep important documents in a waterproof container and make password-protected digital copies.

During

  • If you are told to evacuate, leave right away and never drive around barricades.
  • Do not walk, swim or drive through floodwater. Six inches of moving water can knock you down.
  • If you are trapped in a building, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, floods

Extreme heat

Before

  • Learn the signs of heat illness and how to respond.
  • Do not rely on a fan as your main way to stay cool. Fans do not lower body temperature.
  • Find cool public places, such as libraries or malls, or ask your local health department.
  • Keep heat out with window shades, weather stripping and insulation.
  • If you cannot afford cooling costs, contact LIHEAP for help.

During

  • Never leave a person or an animal in a parked car in warm weather.
  • If your home has no air conditioning, go to a cooling center.
  • Wear light, loose clothing, drink plenty of fluids and avoid hard outdoor work in the middle of the day.

Source: Ready.gov, extreme heat

Questions people ask

Is Bastrop County at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively Moderate in Bastrop County compared with other US counties[12]. Inland flooding is the largest part of the county's Expected Annual Loss at $26.7 million a year[7].
Does Bastrop County get tornadoes?
FEMA rates tornado risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[11]. NOAA's tornado database records 35 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024[4].
How many disasters have been declared in Bastrop County?
OpenFEMA lists 29 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Bastrop County since 1991[2].
Is Bastrop County at risk of earthquakes?
FEMA rates earthquake risk Very Low in Bastrop County compared with other US counties, with a score of 21.0 out of 100[24].
How do I check the flood zone of an address?
FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps, and you can look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager[27].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Bastrop County is $42.5 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively Low, score 80.9). Of this, buildings account for $17.0 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for $24.4... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 29 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Bastrop County since 1991 (15 major disaster, 14 emergency or fire management). By incident type: fire 13, flood 5, hurricane 4, severe storm 3, severe ice storm 2, drought 1, winter storm 1. Biological... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 331 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Bastrop County, 273 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $9.9 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid).... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 35 recorded tornadoes touched Bastrop County. The strongest were rated F3 (most recent of them on 1980-04-07). 3 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2022-03-21. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Bastrop County is Relatively Moderate, with a Risk Index score of 81.1 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Bastrop County are tornado (91.0, Relatively High), inland flooding (86.2, Relatively Moderate), hail (85.1, Relatively Moderate). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Bastrop County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are inland flooding ($26.7 million a year), tornado ($7.4 million a year), cold wave ($2.5 million a year), out of $42.5 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  8. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Bastrop County is Relatively Moderate (score 43.6). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Bastrop County is Relatively Low (score 26.4). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Bastrop County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 91.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $7.4 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.48 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Bastrop County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 86.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $26.7 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 2.5 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of... FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Bastrop County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 85.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.1 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 3.06 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Bastrop County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 83.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.8 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 10.53 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of... FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), winter weather in Bastrop County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 79.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $199,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 3.11 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18... FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Bastrop County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 76.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $708,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 53.75 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Bastrop County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 74.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.5 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.63 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of... FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Bastrop County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 71.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $189,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0011 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Bastrop County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 70.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $481,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 51.84 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Bastrop County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 68.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $872,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 1.48 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Bastrop County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 63.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $279,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 0.05 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172 years for the... FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), ice storm in Bastrop County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 57.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $116,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 0.62 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 68 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Bastrop County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 43.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $778 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Bastrop County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 21.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $30,000 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0004 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  25. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Bastrop County: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  26. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 474 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Bastrop County, out of 37,299 residential structures, a penetration rate of 1.3%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 1,252 residential structures and 264 contracts, a... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  27. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  28. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.