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Natural hazard risk in Shelby County, Tennessee

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively High (score 99.3 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$554.7 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1973
26[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$25.1 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
53[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates overall natural hazard risk in Shelby County as Relatively High compared with other US counties[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores within the county are cold wave, tornado and heat wave[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA's National Risk Index estimates Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Shelby County at $554.7 million a year[1]. This is a FEMA estimate of average yearly loss, not money anyone paid[7]. By FEMA's estimates, the largest hazard-type losses come from earthquake ($215.2 million a year), inland flooding ($153.7 million a year) and tornado ($70.1 million a year)[8]. FEMA rates Social Vulnerability as Relatively High[9]. FEMA describes this as how susceptible social groups are to harm from natural hazards[9]. FEMA rates Community Resilience as Relatively Moderate[10]. FEMA describes this as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards[10].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
Cold WaveVery High$62.2 million[11]
TornadoVery High$70.1 million[12]
Heat WaveRelatively High$48.6 million[13]
EarthquakeRelatively High$215.2 million[14]
Inland FloodingRelatively High$153.7 million[15]
LightningRelatively High$1.7 million[16]
LandslideRelatively Moderate$63,000[17]
Ice StormRelatively High$818,000[18]
Winter WeatherRelatively High$290,000[19]
Strong WindRelatively High$1.4 million[20]
WildfireRelatively Low$145,000[21]
HurricaneRelatively Low$350,000[22]
DroughtRelatively Low$39,000[23]
HailVery Low$33,000[24]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity[25].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityRelatively High72.5[9]
Community resilienceRelatively Moderate57.5[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively High in Shelby County compared with other US counties[15]. OpenFEMA lists 1,978 residential flood insurance contracts in force as of 2026-08-03[26]. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area, 17.9% of homes are insured[26]. OpenFEMA's NFIP claims data list 1,019 claims for losses in the county from 1978 to 2026, and NFIP paid $25.1 million in total[3]. To learn about a specific address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[27].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[15] Relatively High, $153.7 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[26] 1,978 of 303,314 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[26] 3,036, of which 543 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 1,019 filed, $25.1 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[27]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 26 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Shelby County since 1973[2]. Severe storms account for 17 of them[2]. The most recent is DR-4898-TN, Severe Winter Storm, declared 2026-02-06[28]. NOAA's tornado database records 53 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024[4]. The strongest were rated F3[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Shelby County, since 1973
Incident type Declarations
Severe Storm[2] 17
Winter Storm[2] 3
Severe Ice Storm[2] 2
Flood[2] 2
Tornado[2] 1
Hurricane[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
DR-4898-TN[28] Severe Winter Storm 2026-02-06
EM-3635-TN[28] Severe Winter Storm 2026-01-24
DR-4878-TN[28] Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding 2025-06-19
EM-3625-TN[28] Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding 2025-04-02
DR-4735-TN[28] Severe Storms And Straight-Line Winds 2023-09-04

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Winter storms and cold

Before

  • Insulate your home and learn how to keep pipes from freezing.
  • Install and test smoke and carbon monoxide detectors with battery backup.
  • Keep several days of supplies in case the power goes out, including medication and pet needs.
  • Put an emergency kit in your car with jumper cables, sand, blankets, water and snacks, and keep the tank full.

During

  • Under a winter storm warning, find shelter right away.
  • Stay off the roads if you can. If you are stuck in your car, stay inside it.
  • Run generators and grills only outdoors, away from windows, and never heat your home with an oven or stove.

Source: Ready.gov, winter storms and cold

Tornadoes

Before

  • Learn the warning signs: a rotating funnel cloud, an approaching cloud of debris or a loud roar like a freight train.
  • Sign up for community warning systems and learn what your local sirens sound like.
  • Pick a safe spot, such as a safe room built to FEMA criteria or an ICC 500 storm shelter, and practice getting there.
  • Include your pets in the household emergency plan.
  • Keep supplies, food, water and medication in case you have to stay home for a long time.

During

  • Go right away to the safe place you picked in advance.
  • Protect your head and neck with your arms and stay away from windows, doors and outside walls.
  • No place in a car is fully safe. If you can get lower than the road, leave the car and lie down there.

Source: Ready.gov, tornadoes

Extreme heat

Before

  • Learn the signs of heat illness and how to respond.
  • Do not rely on a fan as your main way to stay cool. Fans do not lower body temperature.
  • Find cool public places, such as libraries or malls, or ask your local health department.
  • Keep heat out with window shades, weather stripping and insulation.
  • If you cannot afford cooling costs, contact LIHEAP for help.

During

  • Never leave a person or an animal in a parked car in warm weather.
  • If your home has no air conditioning, go to a cooling center.
  • Wear light, loose clothing, drink plenty of fluids and avoid hard outdoor work in the middle of the day.

Source: Ready.gov, extreme heat

Questions people ask

Is Shelby County at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[15]. Flood zones apply to specific properties, so look up an address in FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[27].
Is Shelby County at risk of tornadoes?
FEMA rates tornado risk Very High compared with other US counties[12]. NOAA's tornado database records 53 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024[4].
Is Shelby County at risk of earthquakes?
FEMA rates earthquake risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[14]. FEMA estimates earthquake Expected Annual Loss at $215.2 million a year[14].
How many disasters have been declared in Shelby County?
OpenFEMA lists 26 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Shelby County since 1973[2].
Is Shelby County at risk of hurricanes or wildfire?
FEMA rates hurricane risk Relatively Low[22] and wildfire risk Relatively Low[21] compared with other US counties. FEMA notes a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low[7].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Shelby County is $554.7 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively High, score 99.1). Of this, buildings account for $315.4 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for $239.3... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 26 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Shelby County since 1973 (22 major disaster, 4 emergency or fire management). By incident type: severe storm 17, winter storm 3, severe ice storm 2, flood 2, tornado 1, hurricane 1. Biological (such as... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 1,019 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Shelby County, 781 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $25.1 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid).... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 53 recorded tornadoes touched Shelby County. The strongest were rated F3 (most recent of them on 1994-11-27). 5 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2019-10-21. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Shelby County is Relatively High, with a Risk Index score of 99.3 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Shelby County are cold wave (99.7, Very High), tornado (99.7, Very High), heat wave (99.5, Relatively High). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published scores; FEMA's scores... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  8. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Shelby County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are earthquake ($215.2 million a year), inland flooding ($153.7 million a year), tornado ($70.1 million a year), out of $554.7 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Shelby County is Relatively High (score 72.5). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Shelby County is Relatively Moderate (score 57.5). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Shelby County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 99.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $62.2 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 1.68 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Shelby County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 99.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $70.1 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 0.51 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Shelby County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 99.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $48.6 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 21.74 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Shelby County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 99.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $215.2 million a year (rating Relatively High). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0091 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Shelby County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 98.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $153.7 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 5.18 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 26... FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Shelby County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 96.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.7 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 59.86 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Shelby County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 92.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $63,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), ice storm in Shelby County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 91.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $818,000 a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 1.09 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 68 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), winter weather in Shelby County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 88.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $290,000 a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 5.26 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Shelby County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 87.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.4 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 1.29 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Shelby County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 71.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $145,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0006 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Shelby County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 67.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $350,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 0.02 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172 years for the... FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Shelby County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 36.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $39,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 9.33 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Shelby County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 12.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $33,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 3.09 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  25. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Shelby County: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  26. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 1,978 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Shelby County, out of 303,314 residential structures, a penetration rate of 0.7%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 3,036 residential structures and 543 contracts, a... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  27. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  28. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.