HazardFacts

All states › Tennessee › Rutherford County

Natural hazard risk in Rutherford County, Tennessee

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively Moderate (score 91.7 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$134.9 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1973
15[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$7.1 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
45[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) gives Rutherford County an overall rating of Relatively Moderate, with a Risk Index score of 91.7 out of 100[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores in this county are cold wave, winter weather and tornado[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA rates overall natural hazard risk here as Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties[5]. FEMA lists $134.9 million a year in expected annual loss from all 18 natural hazards[1]. FEMA's estimate of the largest expected losses, in order, comes from inland flooding, cold wave and earthquake[7]. Expected Annual Loss is a FEMA estimate of average yearly loss, and the index is not meant to predict next year's damage[8]. FEMA rates social vulnerability as Very Low[9]. FEMA rates community resilience as Relatively Moderate[10].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
Cold WaveRelatively High$24.9 million[11]
Winter WeatherVery High$1.1 million[12]
TornadoRelatively High$14.8 million[13]
EarthquakeRelatively Moderate$16.7 million[14]
Inland FloodingRelatively High$70.5 million[15]
LightningRelatively High$1.5 million[16]
Strong WindRelatively High$2.0 million[17]
Heat WaveRelatively Moderate$2.3 million[18]
Ice StormRelatively Moderate$365,000[19]
HailRelatively Low$460,000[20]
HurricaneVery Low$115,000[21]
DroughtRelatively Low$134,000[22]
WildfireVery Low$39,000[23]
LandslideVery Low$87[24]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity[25].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityVery Low15.4[9]
Community resilienceRelatively Moderate56.2[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively High compared with other US counties, with an Expected Annual Loss of $70.5 million a year[15]. OpenFEMA lists 1,067 residential flood insurance contracts in force, a penetration rate of 1.1%[26]. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area, 35.3% of homes are insured[26]. OpenFEMA data show 453 NFIP claims filed for losses from 1978 to 2026, and NFIP paid $7.1 million in total[3]. To learn about a specific address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[27].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[15] Relatively High, $70.5 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[26] 1,067 of 98,453 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[26] 2,009, of which 709 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 453 filed, $7.1 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[27]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 15 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Rutherford County since 1973[2]. The most recent listed is a Severe Winter Storm declaration on 2026-02-06[28]. NOAA's tornado database records 45 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024[4]. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2024-07-29[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Rutherford County, since 1973
Incident type Declarations
Severe Storm[2] 8
Flood[2] 2
Winter Storm[2] 2
Snowstorm[2] 1
Tornado[2] 1
Hurricane[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
DR-4898-TN[28] Severe Winter Storm 2026-02-06
EM-3635-TN[28] Severe Winter Storm 2026-01-24
EM-3625-TN[28] Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding 2025-04-02
DR-4701-TN[28] Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes 2023-04-07
DR-1909-TN[28] Severe Storms, Flooding, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes 2010-05-04

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Winter storms and cold

Before

  • Insulate your home and learn how to keep pipes from freezing.
  • Install and test smoke and carbon monoxide detectors with battery backup.
  • Keep several days of supplies in case the power goes out, including medication and pet needs.
  • Put an emergency kit in your car with jumper cables, sand, blankets, water and snacks, and keep the tank full.

During

  • Under a winter storm warning, find shelter right away.
  • Stay off the roads if you can. If you are stuck in your car, stay inside it.
  • Run generators and grills only outdoors, away from windows, and never heat your home with an oven or stove.

Source: Ready.gov, winter storms and cold

Tornadoes

Before

  • Learn the warning signs: a rotating funnel cloud, an approaching cloud of debris or a loud roar like a freight train.
  • Sign up for community warning systems and learn what your local sirens sound like.
  • Pick a safe spot, such as a safe room built to FEMA criteria or an ICC 500 storm shelter, and practice getting there.
  • Include your pets in the household emergency plan.
  • Keep supplies, food, water and medication in case you have to stay home for a long time.

During

  • Go right away to the safe place you picked in advance.
  • Protect your head and neck with your arms and stay away from windows, doors and outside walls.
  • No place in a car is fully safe. If you can get lower than the road, leave the car and lie down there.

Source: Ready.gov, tornadoes

Earthquakes

Before

  • Practice Drop, Cover, and Hold On with your family and coworkers.
  • Sign up for earthquake alerts that can warn you before shaking starts.
  • Make a plan with an out-of-state contact and a place to meet if you get separated.
  • Anchor heavy items such as bookcases, refrigerators and water heaters, and keep heavy things on low shelves.
  • Consider earthquake insurance. Standard homeowners policies do not cover earthquake damage.

During

  • Drop to your hands and knees, cover your head and neck, and hold on until the shaking stops.
  • Indoors, stay where you are and avoid doorways. Outdoors, move to an open area away from buildings and power lines.
  • If you are driving, pull over, stop and set the parking brake.

Source: Ready.gov, earthquakes

Questions people ask

Is Rutherford County at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[15]. FEMA's estimate puts inland flooding first among hazards for expected annual loss[7].
Does Rutherford County get tornadoes?
NOAA's tornado database records 45 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024[4]. FEMA rates tornado risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[13].
Is Rutherford County at risk of earthquakes?
FEMA rates earthquake risk Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties[14]. Its Expected Annual Loss is $16.7 million a year[14].
How many disasters have been declared in Rutherford County?
OpenFEMA lists 15 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include the county since 1973[2].
How do I check a flood zone?
Look up the address in FEMA's Flood Map Service Center or ask the local floodplain manager[27]. County ratings do not tell you the flood zone of one address[27].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Rutherford County is $134.9 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively Moderate, score 93.4). Of this, buildings account for $87.2 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 15 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Rutherford County since 1973 (11 major disaster, 4 emergency or fire management). By incident type: severe storm 8, flood 2, winter storm 2, snowstorm 1, tornado 1, hurricane 1. Biological (such as... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 453 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Rutherford County, 348 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $7.1 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid).... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 45 recorded tornadoes touched Rutherford County. The strongest were rated EF4 (most recent of them on 2009-04-10). 5 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2024-07-29. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Rutherford County is Relatively Moderate, with a Risk Index score of 91.7 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Rutherford County are cold wave (97.8, Relatively High), winter weather (96.5, Very High), tornado (94.9, Relatively High). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published scores;... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Rutherford County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are inland flooding ($70.5 million a year), cold wave ($24.9 million a year), earthquake ($16.7 million a year), out of $134.9 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  8. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Rutherford County is Very Low (score 15.4). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Rutherford County is Relatively Moderate (score 56.2). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Rutherford County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 97.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $24.9 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 1.16 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), winter weather in Rutherford County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 96.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.1 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 5.26 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Rutherford County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 94.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $14.8 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 0.52 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Rutherford County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 94.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $16.7 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0033 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Rutherford County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 93.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $70.5 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 2.18 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of... FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Rutherford County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 90.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.5 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 59.95 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Rutherford County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 84.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.0 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 6.15 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Rutherford County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 83.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.3 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 4.63 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record... FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), ice storm in Rutherford County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 75.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $365,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.62 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 68... FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Rutherford County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 59.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $460,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 3.59 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Rutherford County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 52.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $115,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.03 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172 years for the Atlantic... FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Rutherford County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 45.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $134,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 16.43 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Rutherford County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 43.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $39,000 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Rutherford County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 15.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $87 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  25. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Rutherford County: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  26. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 1,067 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Rutherford County, out of 98,453 residential structures, a penetration rate of 1.1%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 2,009 residential structures and 709 contracts,... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  27. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  28. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.