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Natural hazard risk in Douglas County, Oregon

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively Moderate (score 92.9 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$94.0 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1964
24[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$3.9 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
1[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) gives Douglas County an overall Risk Index rating of Relatively Moderate, with a score of 92.9 out of 100[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores within the county are wildfire, earthquake and landslide[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA estimates Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Douglas County at $94.0 million a year[1]. FEMA's sorted loss values show inland flooding at $56.0 million a year, earthquake at $25.8 million a year and wildfire at $8.2 million a year[7]. Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of average yearly loss, and the index is not meant to predict damage in the next year[8]. FEMA rates social vulnerability Relatively High, with a score of 79.0[9]. FEMA rates community resilience Relatively Moderate, with a score of 44.3[10]. All ratings compare the county with other US counties[8].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
WildfireRelatively High$8.2 million[11]
EarthquakeRelatively Moderate$25.8 million[12]
LandslideRelatively Moderate$106,000[13]
Inland FloodingRelatively High$56.0 million[14]
Heat WaveRelatively Moderate$1.8 million[15]
Volcanic ActivityRelatively Low$1,982[16]
Winter WeatherRelatively Moderate$190,000[17]
AvalancheRelatively Moderate$457,000[18]
Ice StormRelatively Moderate$228,000[19]
Coastal FloodingRelatively Moderate$490,000[20]
LightningRelatively Low$150,000[21]
TsunamiVery Low$320,000[22]
Strong WindRelatively Low$167,000[23]
HailVery Low$62,000[24]
DroughtVery Low$906[25]
TornadoVery Low$22,000[26]
Cold WaveVery Low$908[27]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: hurricane[28].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityRelatively High79.0[9]
Community resilienceRelatively Moderate44.3[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively High compared with other US counties, with a score of 95.1[14]. FEMA rates coastal flooding Relatively Moderate[20]. OpenFEMA lists 772 flood insurance contracts on 3,871 residential structures inside the Special Flood Hazard Area, so 19.9% of homes inside the SFHA are insured[29]. OpenFEMA NFIP claims data lists 300 claims for losses from 1978 to 2026, and NFIP paid $3.9 million in total[3]. For a specific address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[30].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[14] Relatively High, $56.0 million expected loss a year
Coastal Flooding, FEMA risk rating[20] Relatively Moderate, $490,000 expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[29] 883 of 47,834 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[29] 3,871, of which 772 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 300 filed, $3.9 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[30]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 24 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Douglas County since 1964[2]. By incident type, that is 9 severe storm, 7 fire, 7 flood and 1 coastal storm[2]. The most recent is DR-4881-OR, declared 2025-07-22[31]. NOAA's tornado database records 1 tornado touching the county from 1950 to 2024, rated EF0[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Douglas County, since 1964
Incident type Declarations
Severe Storm[2] 9
Fire[2] 7
Flood[2] 7
Coastal Storm[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
DR-4881-OR[31] Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides 2025-07-22
DR-4562-OR[31] Wildfires And Straight-Line Winds 2020-09-15
EM-3542-OR[31] Wildfires 2020-09-10
FM-5365-OR[31] Archie Creek Fire 2020-09-09
FM-5285-OR[31] Mile Post 97 Fire 2019-07-27

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Wildfires

Before

  • Sign up for community alerts and watch for air quality alerts.
  • Make sure everyone knows the evacuation plan, including for school, work and other places you go often.
  • Keep a fire-resistant zone of at least 30 feet around your home, clear of leaves and debris.
  • Use fire-resistant building materials and keep a hose long enough to reach every part of your property.
  • Pick a room you can seal off from outside air and keep a portable air cleaner ready.

During

  • Leave right away when authorities tell you to evacuate.
  • If you are trapped, call 9-1-1 with your location and turn on lights to help rescuers find you.
  • If you are not ordered to leave but there is smoke, stay in a safe indoor place or go to a community building with less smoke.

Source: Ready.gov, wildfires

Earthquakes

Before

  • Practice Drop, Cover, and Hold On with your family and coworkers.
  • Sign up for earthquake alerts that can warn you before shaking starts.
  • Make a plan with an out-of-state contact and a place to meet if you get separated.
  • Anchor heavy items such as bookcases, refrigerators and water heaters, and keep heavy things on low shelves.
  • Consider earthquake insurance. Standard homeowners policies do not cover earthquake damage.

During

  • Drop to your hands and knees, cover your head and neck, and hold on until the shaking stops.
  • Indoors, stay where you are and avoid doorways. Outdoors, move to an open area away from buildings and power lines.
  • If you are driving, pull over, stop and set the parking brake.

Source: Ready.gov, earthquakes

Floods

Before

  • Check your flood risk with FEMA's Flood Map Service Center, and remember that floods do not follow map lines.
  • Sign up for your community's warning system. NOAA Weather Radio also broadcasts alerts.
  • Buy flood insurance through the NFIP well before a disaster. Homeowners policies do not cover flooding, and a new policy typically takes up to 30 days to go into effect.
  • Make a household plan with evacuation routes, shelter locations and what to do in a flash flood.
  • Keep important documents in a waterproof container and make password-protected digital copies.

During

  • If you are told to evacuate, leave right away and never drive around barricades.
  • Do not walk, swim or drive through floodwater. Six inches of moving water can knock you down.
  • If you are trapped in a building, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, floods

Questions people ask

Is Douglas County, Oregon at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[14]. FEMA's sorted loss values put inland flooding first at $56.0 million a year in Expected Annual Loss[7].
Is Douglas County at risk of wildfire?
FEMA rates wildfire risk Relatively High compared with other US counties, with a score of 97.8[11]. FEMA lists $8.2 million a year in Expected Annual Loss from wildfire[11].
Is Douglas County at risk of earthquakes?
FEMA rates earthquake risk Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties, with a score of 97.2[12]. FEMA lists $25.8 million a year in Expected Annual Loss[12].
Does Douglas County get tornadoes or hurricanes?
FEMA rates tornado risk Very Low compared with other US counties[26]. NOAA's tornado database records 1 tornado from 1950 to 2024[4]. FEMA rates hurricane Not Applicable here[28].
How many disasters have been declared in Douglas County?
OpenFEMA lists 24 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include the county since 1964[2].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Douglas County is $94.0 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively Moderate, score 90.3). Of this, buildings account for $80.2 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for $13.6... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 24 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Douglas County since 1964 (17 major disaster, 7 emergency or fire management). By incident type: severe storm 9, fire 7, flood 7, coastal storm 1. Biological (such as COVID-19) and other non-natural... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 300 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Douglas County, 212 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $3.9 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid).... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 1 recorded tornadoes touched Douglas County. The strongest were rated EF0 (most recent of them on 2013-06-18). 0 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2013-06-18. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Douglas County is Relatively Moderate, with a Risk Index score of 92.9 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Douglas County are wildfire (97.8, Relatively High), earthquake (97.2, Relatively Moderate), landslide (95.3, Relatively Moderate). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Douglas County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are inland flooding ($56.0 million a year), earthquake ($25.8 million a year), wildfire ($8.2 million a year), out of $94.0 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  8. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Douglas County is Relatively High (score 79.0). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Douglas County is Relatively Moderate (score 44.3). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Douglas County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 97.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $8.2 million a year (rating Relatively High). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0054 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Douglas County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 97.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $25.8 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0143 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Douglas County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 95.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $106,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Douglas County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 95.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $56.0 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 1.29 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record... FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Douglas County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 87.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.8 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 4.44 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of... FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), volcanic activity in Douglas County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 85.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1,982 a year (rating Relatively Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), winter weather in Douglas County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 84.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $190,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 18.17 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18... FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), avalanche in Douglas County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 82.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $457,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 0.03 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 28 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), ice storm in Douglas County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 76.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $228,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.15 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 68... FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), coastal flooding in Douglas County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 62.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $490,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 5.9553 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Douglas County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 46.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $150,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 7.17 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tsunami in Douglas County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 41.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $320,000 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Douglas County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 24.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $167,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 0.04 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Douglas County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 23.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $62,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.1 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  25. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Douglas County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 16.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $906 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 36.46 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  26. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Douglas County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 6.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $22,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.05 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  27. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Douglas County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 3.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $908 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.01 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  28. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Douglas County: hurricane. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically possible there. FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  29. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 883 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Douglas County, out of 47,834 residential structures, a penetration rate of 1.8%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 3,871 residential structures and 772 contracts, a... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  30. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  31. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.