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Natural hazard risk in Orange County, North Carolina

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively Low (score 79.0 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$49.7 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1977
24[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$36.4 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
11[4]

FEMA rates the overall natural hazard risk for Orange County, North Carolina as Relatively Low compared with other US counties, with a Risk Index score of 79.0 out of 100[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores within the county are winter weather, inland flooding and lightning[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA's National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) estimates $49.7 million a year in Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Orange County[1]. This is a FEMA estimate of average yearly loss, not money anyone paid. FEMA's largest hazard-type estimates are inland flooding, tornado and hurricane, in that order[7]. FEMA rates social vulnerability as Very Low[8]. That rating describes how susceptible social groups are to harm from natural hazards. FEMA rates community resilience as Very High[9]. That rating describes a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA says the index does not predict next year's losses[10].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
Winter WeatherRelatively High$373,000[11]
Inland FloodingRelatively Moderate$33.3 million[12]
LightningRelatively High$1.2 million[13]
Heat WaveRelatively Moderate$2.4 million[14]
HurricaneRelatively Moderate$3.0 million[15]
TornadoRelatively Moderate$5.2 million[16]
HailRelatively Moderate$906,000[17]
Strong WindRelatively Moderate$1.4 million[18]
Ice StormRelatively Moderate$331,000[19]
EarthquakeRelatively Low$744,000[20]
DroughtRelatively Low$249,000[21]
LandslideVery Low$911[22]
Cold WaveRelatively Low$691,000[23]
WildfireVery Low$16,000[24]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity[25].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityVery Low16.5[8]
Community resilienceVery High93.6[9]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding in Orange County Relatively Moderate, with a hazard score of 85.5 out of 100[12]. OpenFEMA lists 621 residential flood insurance contracts in force as of 2026-08-03, a penetration rate of 1.5%[26]. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area, 50.1% of homes are insured[26]. OpenFEMA NFIP claims data lists 568 claims for losses in the county from 1978 to 2026, and NFIP paid $36.4 million in total[3]. For a specific address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[27].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[12] Relatively Moderate, $33.3 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[26] 621 of 42,431 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[26] 409, of which 205 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 568 filed, $36.4 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[27]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 24 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Orange County since 1977[2]. Hurricanes account for 12 of them[2]. The most recent in the facts is a Severe Winter Storm emergency declared 2026-01-24[28]. NOAA's tornado database records 11 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024[4]. The most recent was on 2022-05-06[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Orange County, since 1977
Incident type Declarations
Hurricane[2] 12
Snowstorm[2] 3
Severe Ice Storm[2] 3
Tropical Storm[2] 2
Severe Storm[2] 1
Tropical Depression[2] 1
Winter Storm[2] 1
Drought[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
EM-3637-NC[28] Severe Winter Storm 2026-01-24
DR-4889-NC[28] Tropical Depression Chantal 2025-09-11
EM-3617-NC[28] Hurricane Helene 2024-09-26
EM-3608-NC[28] Tropical Storm Debby 2024-08-06
EM-3586-NC[28] Hurricane Ian 2022-10-01

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Winter storms and cold

Before

  • Insulate your home and learn how to keep pipes from freezing.
  • Install and test smoke and carbon monoxide detectors with battery backup.
  • Keep several days of supplies in case the power goes out, including medication and pet needs.
  • Put an emergency kit in your car with jumper cables, sand, blankets, water and snacks, and keep the tank full.

During

  • Under a winter storm warning, find shelter right away.
  • Stay off the roads if you can. If you are stuck in your car, stay inside it.
  • Run generators and grills only outdoors, away from windows, and never heat your home with an oven or stove.

Source: Ready.gov, winter storms and cold

Floods

Before

  • Check your flood risk with FEMA's Flood Map Service Center, and remember that floods do not follow map lines.
  • Sign up for your community's warning system. NOAA Weather Radio also broadcasts alerts.
  • Buy flood insurance through the NFIP well before a disaster. Homeowners policies do not cover flooding, and a new policy typically takes up to 30 days to go into effect.
  • Make a household plan with evacuation routes, shelter locations and what to do in a flash flood.
  • Keep important documents in a waterproof container and make password-protected digital copies.

During

  • If you are told to evacuate, leave right away and never drive around barricades.
  • Do not walk, swim or drive through floodwater. Six inches of moving water can knock you down.
  • If you are trapped in a building, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, floods

Extreme heat

Before

  • Learn the signs of heat illness and how to respond.
  • Do not rely on a fan as your main way to stay cool. Fans do not lower body temperature.
  • Find cool public places, such as libraries or malls, or ask your local health department.
  • Keep heat out with window shades, weather stripping and insulation.
  • If you cannot afford cooling costs, contact LIHEAP for help.

During

  • Never leave a person or an animal in a parked car in warm weather.
  • If your home has no air conditioning, go to a cooling center.
  • Wear light, loose clothing, drink plenty of fluids and avoid hard outdoor work in the middle of the day.

Source: Ready.gov, extreme heat

Questions people ask

Is Orange County, NC at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding Relatively Moderate for Orange County compared with other US counties[12]. FEMA estimates inland flooding makes up $33.3 million a year of the county's Expected Annual Loss[7].
Is Orange County, NC at risk of tornadoes?
FEMA rates tornado risk Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties[16]. NOAA's tornado database records 11 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024[4].
Is Orange County, NC at risk of earthquakes or wildfire?
FEMA rates earthquake risk Relatively Low[20] and wildfire risk Very Low compared with other US counties[24].
How many disasters have been declared in Orange County, NC?
OpenFEMA lists 24 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include the county since 1977[2].
How do I check the flood zone of an address in Orange County, NC?
Look up the address in FEMA's Flood Map Service Center or ask the local floodplain manager[27]. County-level ratings do not give the flood zone of a single address[27].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Orange County is $49.7 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively Low, score 83.5). Of this, buildings account for $39.9 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for $9.4... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 24 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Orange County since 1977 (11 major disaster, 13 emergency or fire management). By incident type: hurricane 12, snowstorm 3, severe ice storm 3, tropical storm 2, severe storm 1, tropical depression 1,... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 568 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Orange County, 456 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $36.4 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid).... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 11 recorded tornadoes touched Orange County. The strongest were rated F3 (most recent of them on 1992-11-23). 1 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2022-05-06. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Orange County is Relatively Low, with a Risk Index score of 79.0 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Orange County are winter weather (86.1, Relatively High), inland flooding (85.5, Relatively Moderate), lightning (85.3, Relatively High). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Orange County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are inland flooding ($33.3 million a year), tornado ($5.2 million a year), hurricane ($3.0 million a year), out of $49.7 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  8. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Orange County is Very Low (score 16.5). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Orange County is Very High (score 93.6). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), winter weather in Orange County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 86.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $373,000 a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 7.42 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Orange County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 85.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $33.3 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 1.29 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of... FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Orange County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 85.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.2 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 47.15 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Orange County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 84.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.4 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 4.84 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18... FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Orange County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 81.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $3.0 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.11 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172... FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Orange County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 81.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $5.2 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.15 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Orange County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 76.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $906,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 4.43 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Orange County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 74.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.4 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 1.57 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38... FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), ice storm in Orange County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 73.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $331,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 1.8 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 68 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Orange County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 64.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $744,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0012 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Orange County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 54.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $249,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 15.49 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Orange County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 41.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $911 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Orange County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 36.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $691,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 0.68 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Orange County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 28.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $16,000 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0001 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  25. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Orange County: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  26. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 621 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Orange County, out of 42,431 residential structures, a penetration rate of 1.5%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 409 residential structures and 205 contracts, a rate... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  27. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  28. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.