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Natural hazard risk in Harnett County, North Carolina

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively Low (score 75.2 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$37.3 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1968
21[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$2.5 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
27[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) gives Harnett County an overall Risk Index rating of Relatively Low, with a score of 75.2 out of 100[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores in the county are hurricane, tornado and heat wave[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA's scores compare each county with all other US counties, so Relatively Low is a relative rating[5][7]. FEMA lists $37.3 million a year in Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Harnett County[1]. This is FEMA's estimate of average yearly loss, not money anyone paid[7]. The largest parts of that loss are inland flooding ($16.7 million a year), hurricane ($6.8 million a year) and tornado ($6.3 million a year)[8]. FEMA rates Social Vulnerability Relatively Low with a score of 27.5[9]. FEMA rates Community Resilience Relatively Low with a score of 20.5[10]. FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards[10].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
HurricaneRelatively Moderate$6.8 million[11]
TornadoRelatively Moderate$6.3 million[12]
Heat WaveRelatively Moderate$2.0 million[13]
Winter WeatherRelatively Moderate$268,000[14]
Ice StormRelatively Moderate$432,000[15]
LightningRelatively Moderate$725,000[16]
Inland FloodingRelatively Moderate$16.7 million[17]
HailRelatively Low$587,000[18]
WildfireRelatively Low$178,000[19]
EarthquakeRelatively Low$674,000[20]
DroughtRelatively Moderate$417,000[21]
Strong WindRelatively Moderate$791,000[22]
Cold WaveRelatively Low$1.5 million[23]
LandslideVery Low$1,045[24]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity[25].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityRelatively Low27.5[9]
Community resilienceRelatively Low20.5[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively Moderate in Harnett County, with a score of 73.9[17]. OpenFEMA lists 341 residential flood insurance contracts in force as of 2026-08-03, a penetration rate of 0.7%[26]. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area, 48.7% of homes are insured[26]. OpenFEMA records 116 NFIP claims for losses in the county from 1978 to 2026, and NFIP paid $2.5 million in total[3]. To check a specific address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[27].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[17] Relatively Moderate, $16.7 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[26] 341 of 48,791 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[26] 224, of which 109 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 116 filed, $2.5 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[27]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 21 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Harnett County since 1968[2]. Hurricanes account for 12 of them[2]. The most recent in the list is a Severe Winter Storm declaration on 2026-01-24[28]. NOAA's tornado database records 27 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024, and the most recent was on 2022-01-03[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Harnett County, since 1968
Incident type Declarations
Hurricane[2] 12
Severe Storm[2] 2
Tropical Storm[2] 2
Severe Ice Storm[2] 2
Winter Storm[2] 1
Snowstorm[2] 1
Drought[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
EM-3637-NC[28] Severe Winter Storm 2026-01-24
EM-3617-NC[28] Hurricane Helene 2024-09-26
EM-3608-NC[28] Tropical Storm Debby 2024-08-06
EM-3586-NC[28] Hurricane Ian 2022-10-01
EM-3534-NC[28] Hurricane Isaias 2020-08-02

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Hurricanes

Before

  • Know your hurricane risk, including rain, wind and tornadoes far inland from landfall.
  • Learn your evacuation zone and routes, and practice them with your household and pets.
  • Keep insurance policies and ID current, with password-protected digital copies.
  • Clear drains and gutters, bring in outdoor furniture and consider hurricane shutters.
  • Keep your phone charged, buy backup chargers and gather supplies, including medication and pet supplies.

During

  • If you are in a mandatory evacuation zone and officials order an evacuation, leave right away.
  • For high winds, take shelter in a designated storm shelter or an interior room.
  • If you are trapped by flooding, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, hurricanes

Tornadoes

Before

  • Learn the warning signs: a rotating funnel cloud, an approaching cloud of debris or a loud roar like a freight train.
  • Sign up for community warning systems and learn what your local sirens sound like.
  • Pick a safe spot, such as a safe room built to FEMA criteria or an ICC 500 storm shelter, and practice getting there.
  • Include your pets in the household emergency plan.
  • Keep supplies, food, water and medication in case you have to stay home for a long time.

During

  • Go right away to the safe place you picked in advance.
  • Protect your head and neck with your arms and stay away from windows, doors and outside walls.
  • No place in a car is fully safe. If you can get lower than the road, leave the car and lie down there.

Source: Ready.gov, tornadoes

Extreme heat

Before

  • Learn the signs of heat illness and how to respond.
  • Do not rely on a fan as your main way to stay cool. Fans do not lower body temperature.
  • Find cool public places, such as libraries or malls, or ask your local health department.
  • Keep heat out with window shades, weather stripping and insulation.
  • If you cannot afford cooling costs, contact LIHEAP for help.

During

  • Never leave a person or an animal in a parked car in warm weather.
  • If your home has no air conditioning, go to a cooling center.
  • Wear light, loose clothing, drink plenty of fluids and avoid hard outdoor work in the middle of the day.

Source: Ready.gov, extreme heat

Questions people ask

Is Harnett County at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively Moderate in Harnett County compared with other US counties[17]. FEMA lists inland flooding as the largest part of the county's Expected Annual Loss at $16.7 million a year[8].
Does Harnett County get tornadoes?
NOAA's tornado database records 27 tornadoes touching Harnett County from 1950 to 2024[4]. FEMA rates tornado risk Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties[12].
How many federal disasters have been declared in Harnett County?
OpenFEMA lists 21 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Harnett County since 1968[2].
Is Harnett County at risk of earthquakes?
FEMA rates earthquake risk Relatively Low in Harnett County compared with other US counties[20]. FEMA lists $674,000 a year in earthquake Expected Annual Loss[20].
How do I check the flood zone for an address in Harnett County?
County-level ratings do not show the flood zone of one address. Look up the address in FEMA's Flood Map Service Center or ask the local floodplain manager[27].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Harnett County is $37.3 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively Low, score 78.1). Of this, buildings account for $24.7 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for $10.3... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 21 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Harnett County since 1968 (10 major disaster, 11 emergency or fire management). By incident type: hurricane 12, severe storm 2, tropical storm 2, severe ice storm 2, winter storm 1, snowstorm 1, drought... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 116 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Harnett County, 85 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $2.5 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid). Years... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 27 recorded tornadoes touched Harnett County. The strongest were rated EF3 (most recent of them on 2011-04-16). 2 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2022-01-03. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Harnett County is Relatively Low, with a Risk Index score of 75.2 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Harnett County are hurricane (88.8, Relatively Moderate), tornado (87.0, Relatively Moderate), heat wave (83.5, Relatively Moderate). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  8. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Harnett County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are inland flooding ($16.7 million a year), hurricane ($6.8 million a year), tornado ($6.3 million a year), out of $37.3 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Harnett County is Relatively Low (score 27.5). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Harnett County is Relatively Low (score 20.5). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Harnett County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 88.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $6.8 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.21 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172... FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Harnett County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 87.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $6.3 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.32 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Harnett County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 83.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.0 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 8.26 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of... FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), winter weather in Harnett County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 83.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $268,000 a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 5.05 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), ice storm in Harnett County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 79.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $432,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 1.36 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 68... FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Harnett County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 78.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $725,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 51.63 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Harnett County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 73.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $16.7 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 1 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record... FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Harnett County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 69.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $587,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 4.15 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Harnett County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 69.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $178,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0008 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Harnett County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 65.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $674,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0014 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Harnett County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 64.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $417,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 13.37 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Harnett County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 60.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $791,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 1.44 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Harnett County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 59.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.5 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.47 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Harnett County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 45.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1,045 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  25. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Harnett County: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  26. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 341 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Harnett County, out of 48,791 residential structures, a penetration rate of 0.7%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 224 residential structures and 109 contracts, a rate... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  27. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  28. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.