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Natural hazard risk in Ashe County, North Carolina

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively Low (score 66.7 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$17.8 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1973
24[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$7.3 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
1[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates overall natural hazard risk in Ashe County as Relatively Low, with a Risk Index score of 66.7 out of 100[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores within the county are landslide, cold wave and strong wind[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA estimates Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Ashe County at $17.8 million a year[1]. FEMA's sorted loss values show the largest are inland flooding at $11.9 million a year, cold wave at $3.0 million a year and strong wind at $985,000 a year[7]. Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of average yearly loss, and the index is not meant to predict damage in the next year[8]. FEMA rates Social Vulnerability as Very High (score 84.8), which describes how susceptible social groups are to harm from natural hazards[9]. FEMA rates Community Resilience as Relatively Low (score 33.2), which describes a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards[10].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
LandslideRelatively Moderate$67,000[11]
Cold WaveRelatively Moderate$3.0 million[12]
Strong WindRelatively Moderate$985,000[13]
Inland FloodingRelatively Moderate$11.9 million[14]
DroughtRelatively Moderate$391,000[15]
Ice StormRelatively Moderate$144,000[16]
HurricaneRelatively Low$209,000[17]
LightningRelatively Low$183,000[18]
EarthquakeVery Low$220,000[19]
WildfireVery Low$29,000[20]
Winter WeatherRelatively Low$40,000[21]
TornadoRelatively Low$589,000[22]
HailVery Low$91,000[23]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity[24].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityVery High84.8[9]
Community resilienceRelatively Low33.2[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk in Ashe County as Relatively Moderate, with an Expected Annual Loss of $11.9 million a year rated Relatively Low[14]. OpenFEMA lists 191 residential flood insurance contracts in force out of 17,839 residential structures, as of 2026-08-03[25]. Inside the mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 147 residential flood insurance contracts for 660 residential structures, a rate of 22.3%[25]. OpenFEMA NFIP claims data lists 183 claims for losses from 1978 to 2026, and NFIP paid $7.3 million in total[3]. To learn about a specific address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[26].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[14] Relatively Moderate, $11.9 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[25] 191 of 17,839 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[25] 660, of which 147 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 183 filed, $7.3 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[26]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 24 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Ashe County since 1973[2]. By incident type, hurricane has 10 and flood has 5[2]. The most recent listed is a Severe Winter Storm emergency declared 2026-01-24[27]. NOAA's tornado database records 1 tornado touching Ashe County from 1950 to 2024, rated EF1, on 2017-10-08[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Ashe County, since 1973
Incident type Declarations
Hurricane[2] 10
Flood[2] 5
Severe Storm[2] 4
Tropical Storm[2] 2
Snowstorm[2] 2
Winter Storm[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
EM-3637-NC[27] Severe Winter Storm 2026-01-24
DR-4827-NC[27] Tropical Storm Helene 2024-09-28
EM-3617-NC[27] Hurricane Helene 2024-09-26
EM-3586-NC[27] Hurricane Ian 2022-10-01
DR-4617-NC[27] Remnants Of Tropical Storm Fred 2021-09-08

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Winter storms and cold

Before

  • Insulate your home and learn how to keep pipes from freezing.
  • Install and test smoke and carbon monoxide detectors with battery backup.
  • Keep several days of supplies in case the power goes out, including medication and pet needs.
  • Put an emergency kit in your car with jumper cables, sand, blankets, water and snacks, and keep the tank full.

During

  • Under a winter storm warning, find shelter right away.
  • Stay off the roads if you can. If you are stuck in your car, stay inside it.
  • Run generators and grills only outdoors, away from windows, and never heat your home with an oven or stove.

Source: Ready.gov, winter storms and cold

Floods

Before

  • Check your flood risk with FEMA's Flood Map Service Center, and remember that floods do not follow map lines.
  • Sign up for your community's warning system. NOAA Weather Radio also broadcasts alerts.
  • Buy flood insurance through the NFIP well before a disaster. Homeowners policies do not cover flooding, and a new policy typically takes up to 30 days to go into effect.
  • Make a household plan with evacuation routes, shelter locations and what to do in a flash flood.
  • Keep important documents in a waterproof container and make password-protected digital copies.

During

  • If you are told to evacuate, leave right away and never drive around barricades.
  • Do not walk, swim or drive through floodwater. Six inches of moving water can knock you down.
  • If you are trapped in a building, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, floods

Questions people ask

Is Ashe County at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk in Ashe County as Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties[14]. FEMA's sorted loss values show inland flooding has the largest Expected Annual Loss at $11.9 million a year[7].
Does Ashe County get tornadoes?
NOAA's tornado database records 1 tornado touching Ashe County from 1950 to 2024, rated EF1[4]. FEMA rates tornado risk Relatively Low compared with other US counties[22].
Is Ashe County at risk of earthquakes or wildfire?
FEMA rates earthquake risk Very Low compared with other US counties[19]. FEMA also rates wildfire risk Very Low[20].
How many disasters have been declared in Ashe County?
OpenFEMA lists 24 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Ashe County since 1973[2].
How do I check the flood zone of an address in Ashe County?
Look up the address in FEMA's Flood Map Service Center or ask the local floodplain manager[26]. County-level ratings do not give the flood zone of a single address[26].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Ashe County is $17.8 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively Low, score 56.4). Of this, buildings account for $11.9 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for $4.3 million... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 24 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Ashe County since 1973 (16 major disaster, 8 emergency or fire management). By incident type: hurricane 10, flood 5, severe storm 4, tropical storm 2, snowstorm 2, winter storm 1. Biological (such as... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 183 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Ashe County, 144 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $7.3 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid). Years... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 1 recorded tornadoes touched Ashe County. The strongest were rated EF1 (most recent of them on 2017-10-08). 0 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2017-10-08. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Ashe County is Relatively Low, with a Risk Index score of 66.7 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Ashe County are landslide (93.4, Relatively Moderate), cold wave (82.6, Relatively Moderate), strong wind (82.2, Relatively Moderate). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Ashe County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are inland flooding ($11.9 million a year), cold wave ($3.0 million a year), strong wind ($985,000 a year), out of $17.8 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  8. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Ashe County is Very High (score 84.8). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Ashe County is Relatively Low (score 33.2). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Ashe County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 93.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $67,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Ashe County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 82.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $3.0 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 4.89 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18... FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Ashe County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 82.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $985,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 2.67 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Ashe County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 76.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $11.9 million a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 2.21 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 26... FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Ashe County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 71.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $391,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 19.35 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), ice storm in Ashe County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 69.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $144,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.54 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 68 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Ashe County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 63.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $209,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 0.03 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172 years for the... FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Ashe County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 53.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $183,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 48.72 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Ashe County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 52.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $220,000 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0015 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Ashe County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 47.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $29,000 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0009 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), winter weather in Ashe County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 47.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $40,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 20.84 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Ashe County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 39.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $589,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 0.1 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Ashe County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 32.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $91,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 3.99 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Ashe County: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  25. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 191 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Ashe County, out of 17,839 residential structures, a penetration rate of 1.1%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 660 residential structures and 147 contracts, a rate of... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  26. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  27. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.