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Natural hazard risk in Clay County, Missouri

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively Moderate (score 89.7 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$112.6 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1965
23[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$11.1 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
36[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) gives Clay County, Missouri an overall natural hazard rating of Relatively Moderate, with a score of 89.7 out of 100[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores in the county are cold wave, hail and heat wave[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA rates overall risk Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties[5]. FEMA estimates Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards at $112.6 million a year[1]. This is FEMA's estimate of average yearly loss, not money anyone paid, and it is not a forecast for next year[7]. FEMA lists the largest hazard-type losses in this order: inland flooding ($43.3 million a year), cold wave ($26.3 million a year) and tornado ($20.7 million a year)[8]. FEMA rates Social Vulnerability Very Low[9] and Community Resilience Very High[10].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
Cold WaveRelatively High$26.3 million[11]
HailRelatively High$6.6 million[12]
Heat WaveRelatively High$11.9 million[13]
TornadoRelatively High$20.7 million[14]
Inland FloodingRelatively Moderate$43.3 million[15]
Ice StormRelatively Moderate$642,000[16]
Winter WeatherRelatively Moderate$266,000[17]
LandslideRelatively Low$14,000[18]
LightningRelatively Moderate$845,000[19]
WildfireRelatively Low$225,000[20]
EarthquakeRelatively Low$763,000[21]
Strong WindRelatively Moderate$964,000[22]
DroughtRelatively Low$125,000[23]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity[24].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityVery Low11.3[9]
Community resilienceVery High82.6[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively Moderate, with a score of 87.7[15]. OpenFEMA data as of 2026-08-03 show 149 residential flood insurance contracts inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area, so 26.6% of homes inside the SFHA are insured[25]. OpenFEMA lists 799 NFIP claims for losses from 1978 to 2026, and NFIP paid $11.1 million in total[3]. To learn about an address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[26].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[15] Relatively Moderate, $43.3 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[25] 258 of 82,860 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[25] 560, of which 149 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 799 filed, $11.1 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[26]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 23 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Clay County since 1965[2]. The most recent is DR-4451-MO, declared 2019-07-09 for severe storms, tornadoes and flooding[27]. NOAA's tornado database records 36 tornadoes that touched the county from 1950 to 2024, and the most recent was on 2024-04-16[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Clay County, since 1965
Incident type Declarations
Severe Storm[2] 9
Flood[2] 8
Severe Ice Storm[2] 3
Hurricane[2] 1
Drought[2] 1
Tornado[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
DR-4451-MO[27] Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding 2019-07-09
DR-4238-MO[27] Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding 2015-08-07
EM-3325-MO[27] Flooding 2011-06-30
EM-3317-MO[27] Severe Winter Storm 2011-02-03
EM-3303-MO[27] Severe Winter Storm 2009-01-30

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Winter storms and cold

Before

  • Insulate your home and learn how to keep pipes from freezing.
  • Install and test smoke and carbon monoxide detectors with battery backup.
  • Keep several days of supplies in case the power goes out, including medication and pet needs.
  • Put an emergency kit in your car with jumper cables, sand, blankets, water and snacks, and keep the tank full.

During

  • Under a winter storm warning, find shelter right away.
  • Stay off the roads if you can. If you are stuck in your car, stay inside it.
  • Run generators and grills only outdoors, away from windows, and never heat your home with an oven or stove.

Source: Ready.gov, winter storms and cold

Extreme heat

Before

  • Learn the signs of heat illness and how to respond.
  • Do not rely on a fan as your main way to stay cool. Fans do not lower body temperature.
  • Find cool public places, such as libraries or malls, or ask your local health department.
  • Keep heat out with window shades, weather stripping and insulation.
  • If you cannot afford cooling costs, contact LIHEAP for help.

During

  • Never leave a person or an animal in a parked car in warm weather.
  • If your home has no air conditioning, go to a cooling center.
  • Wear light, loose clothing, drink plenty of fluids and avoid hard outdoor work in the middle of the day.

Source: Ready.gov, extreme heat

Tornadoes

Before

  • Learn the warning signs: a rotating funnel cloud, an approaching cloud of debris or a loud roar like a freight train.
  • Sign up for community warning systems and learn what your local sirens sound like.
  • Pick a safe spot, such as a safe room built to FEMA criteria or an ICC 500 storm shelter, and practice getting there.
  • Include your pets in the household emergency plan.
  • Keep supplies, food, water and medication in case you have to stay home for a long time.

During

  • Go right away to the safe place you picked in advance.
  • Protect your head and neck with your arms and stay away from windows, doors and outside walls.
  • No place in a car is fully safe. If you can get lower than the road, leave the car and lie down there.

Source: Ready.gov, tornadoes

Questions people ask

Is Clay County, Missouri at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties[15]. FEMA lists inland flooding as the largest hazard-type Expected Annual Loss at $43.3 million a year[8].
Is Clay County at risk of tornadoes?
FEMA rates tornado risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[14]. NOAA's tornado database records 36 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024[4].
Is Clay County at risk of earthquakes or wildfire?
FEMA rates earthquake risk Relatively Low[21] and wildfire risk Relatively Low[20], compared with other US counties.
How many disasters have been declared in Clay County?
OpenFEMA lists 23 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Clay County since 1965[2].
How do I check a flood zone for an address?
Look up the address in FEMA's Flood Map Service Center or ask the local floodplain manager[26].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Clay County is $112.6 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively Moderate, score 91.6). Of this, buildings account for $58.2 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for $53.9... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 23 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Clay County since 1965 (17 major disaster, 6 emergency or fire management). By incident type: severe storm 9, flood 8, severe ice storm 3, hurricane 1, drought 1, tornado 1. Biological (such as COVID-19)... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 799 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Clay County, 668 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $11.1 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid). Years... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 36 recorded tornadoes touched Clay County. The strongest were rated F4 (most recent of them on 2003-05-04). 4 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2024-04-16. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Clay County is Relatively Moderate, with a Risk Index score of 89.7 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Clay County are cold wave (97.7, Relatively High), hail (97.3, Relatively High), heat wave (96.7, Relatively High). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published scores; FEMA's... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  8. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Clay County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are inland flooding ($43.3 million a year), cold wave ($26.3 million a year), tornado ($20.7 million a year), out of $112.6 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Clay County is Very Low (score 11.3). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Clay County is Very High (score 82.6). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 97.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $26.3 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 2.53 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 97.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $6.6 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 8.47 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 96.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $11.9 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 14.84 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 96.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $20.7 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 0.27 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 87.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $43.3 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 3.04 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record... FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), ice storm in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 81.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $642,000 a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 0.85 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 68 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), winter weather in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 78.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $266,000 a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 11.21 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 76.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $14,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 75.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $845,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 48.91 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 69.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $225,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0008 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 63.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $763,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.001 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 58.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $964,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 6.44 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Clay County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 43.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $125,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 12.68 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Clay County: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  25. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 258 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Clay County, out of 82,860 residential structures, a penetration rate of 0.3%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 560 residential structures and 149 contracts, a rate of... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  26. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  27. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.