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Natural hazard risk in Jefferson County, Kentucky

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively High (score 98.2 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$341.9 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1974
22[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$98.8 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
27[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall natural hazard risk for Jefferson County as Relatively High, with a score of 98.2[5]. FEMA's highest hazard scores within the county are for tornado, inland flooding and heat wave[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA's scores compare each county with all other US counties[7]. FEMA lists $341.9 million in expected annual loss from all 18 natural hazards in Jefferson County[1]. The largest hazard-type values are inland flooding ($212.8 million a year), tornado ($80.2 million a year) and earthquake ($24.8 million a year)[8]. Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of average yearly loss, and the index is not meant to predict damage in the next year[7]. FEMA rates Social Vulnerability as Relatively Moderate (score 54.8)[9]. FEMA rates Community Resilience as Relatively High (score 76.6)[10].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
TornadoVery High$80.2 million[11]
Inland FloodingRelatively High$212.8 million[12]
Heat WaveRelatively High$8.3 million[13]
EarthquakeRelatively Moderate$24.8 million[14]
Cold WaveRelatively High$10.0 million[15]
Winter WeatherRelatively High$438,000[16]
LightningRelatively High$1.2 million[17]
Strong WindRelatively High$1.9 million[18]
HailRelatively Moderate$1.5 million[19]
Ice StormRelatively High$569,000[20]
WildfireVery Low$61,000[21]
HurricaneVery Low$20,000[22]
LandslideVery Low$422[23]
DroughtVery Low$4,961[24]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity[25].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityRelatively Moderate54.8[9]
Community resilienceRelatively High76.6[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively High compared with other US counties, with a score of 99.1[12]. OpenFEMA lists 2,982 residential flood insurance contracts in force in Jefferson County as of 2026-08-03, a penetration rate of 1.2%[26]. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area, 52.8% of homes are insured[26]. OpenFEMA NFIP claims data from 1978 to 2026 show 5,557 claims filed and $98.8 million paid by NFIP[3]. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the place to look up the flood zone of a specific address[27].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[12] Relatively High, $212.8 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[26] 2,982 of 243,583 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[26] 4,595, of which 2,428 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 5,557 filed, $98.8 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[27]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Jefferson County since 1974[2]. Severe storms account for 12 of them and floods for 4[2]. The most recent listed is EM-3633-KY, Severe Winter Storm, declared 2026-01-24[28]. NOAA's tornado database records 27 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024, and the most recent was on 2024-07-04[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Jefferson County, since 1974
Incident type Declarations
Severe Storm[2] 12
Flood[2] 4
Severe Ice Storm[2] 2
Winter Storm[2] 1
Snowstorm[2] 1
Tornado[2] 1
Hurricane[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
EM-3633-KY[28] Severe Winter Storm 2026-01-24
DR-4864-KY[28] Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides 2025-04-24
EM-3626-KY[28] Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding 2025-04-03
DR-4860-KY[28] Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides 2025-02-24
EM-3624-KY[28] Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Landslides 2025-02-16

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Tornadoes

Before

  • Learn the warning signs: a rotating funnel cloud, an approaching cloud of debris or a loud roar like a freight train.
  • Sign up for community warning systems and learn what your local sirens sound like.
  • Pick a safe spot, such as a safe room built to FEMA criteria or an ICC 500 storm shelter, and practice getting there.
  • Include your pets in the household emergency plan.
  • Keep supplies, food, water and medication in case you have to stay home for a long time.

During

  • Go right away to the safe place you picked in advance.
  • Protect your head and neck with your arms and stay away from windows, doors and outside walls.
  • No place in a car is fully safe. If you can get lower than the road, leave the car and lie down there.

Source: Ready.gov, tornadoes

Floods

Before

  • Check your flood risk with FEMA's Flood Map Service Center, and remember that floods do not follow map lines.
  • Sign up for your community's warning system. NOAA Weather Radio also broadcasts alerts.
  • Buy flood insurance through the NFIP well before a disaster. Homeowners policies do not cover flooding, and a new policy typically takes up to 30 days to go into effect.
  • Make a household plan with evacuation routes, shelter locations and what to do in a flash flood.
  • Keep important documents in a waterproof container and make password-protected digital copies.

During

  • If you are told to evacuate, leave right away and never drive around barricades.
  • Do not walk, swim or drive through floodwater. Six inches of moving water can knock you down.
  • If you are trapped in a building, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, floods

Extreme heat

Before

  • Learn the signs of heat illness and how to respond.
  • Do not rely on a fan as your main way to stay cool. Fans do not lower body temperature.
  • Find cool public places, such as libraries or malls, or ask your local health department.
  • Keep heat out with window shades, weather stripping and insulation.
  • If you cannot afford cooling costs, contact LIHEAP for help.

During

  • Never leave a person or an animal in a parked car in warm weather.
  • If your home has no air conditioning, go to a cooling center.
  • Wear light, loose clothing, drink plenty of fluids and avoid hard outdoor work in the middle of the day.

Source: Ready.gov, extreme heat

Questions people ask

Is Jefferson County, Kentucky at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively High compared with other US counties, with a score of 99.1[12]. FEMA lists $212.8 million in expected annual loss from inland flooding[12].
Does Jefferson County get tornadoes?
NOAA's tornado database records 27 tornadoes touching Jefferson County from 1950 to 2024[4]. FEMA rates tornado risk Very High compared with other US counties[11].
Is Jefferson County at risk of earthquakes, hurricanes or wildfire?
FEMA rates earthquake risk Relatively Moderate[14]. FEMA rates hurricane risk Very Low and wildfire risk Very Low compared with other US counties[22][21].
How many disasters have been declared in Jefferson County?
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Jefferson County since 1974[2].
How do I check my flood zone in Jefferson County?
Look up your address in FEMA's Flood Map Service Center or ask the local floodplain manager[27].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Jefferson County is $341.9 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively High, score 98.0). Of this, buildings account for $248.1 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for $93.7... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 22 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Jefferson County since 1974 (17 major disaster, 5 emergency or fire management). By incident type: severe storm 12, flood 4, severe ice storm 2, winter storm 1, snowstorm 1, tornado 1, hurricane 1.... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 5,557 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Jefferson County, 4,445 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $98.8 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 27 recorded tornadoes touched Jefferson County. The strongest were rated F4 (most recent of them on 1996-05-28). 2 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2024-07-04. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Jefferson County is Relatively High, with a Risk Index score of 98.2 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Jefferson County are tornado (99.7, Very High), inland flooding (99.1, Relatively High), heat wave (96.8, Relatively High). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published scores;... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  8. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Jefferson County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are inland flooding ($212.8 million a year), tornado ($80.2 million a year), earthquake ($24.8 million a year), out of $341.9 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Jefferson County is Relatively Moderate (score 54.8). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Jefferson County is Relatively High (score 76.6). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Jefferson County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 99.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $80.2 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 0.28 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Jefferson County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 99.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $212.8 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 3.89 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of... FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Jefferson County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 96.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $8.3 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 5.63 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18... FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Jefferson County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 96.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $24.8 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0026 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Jefferson County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 94.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $10.0 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 1.26 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), winter weather in Jefferson County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 92.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $438,000 a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 9.58 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Jefferson County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 91.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.2 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 52.19 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Jefferson County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 90.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.9 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 6.2 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Jefferson County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 89.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.5 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 3.35 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), ice storm in Jefferson County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 85.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $569,000 a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 0.9 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 68 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Jefferson County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 56.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $61,000 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Jefferson County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 35.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $20,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.01 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172 years for the Atlantic... FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Jefferson County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 35.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $422 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Jefferson County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 21.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $4,961 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 2.26 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  25. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Jefferson County: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  26. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 2,982 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Jefferson County, out of 243,583 residential structures, a penetration rate of 1.2%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 4,595 residential structures and 2,428... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  27. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  28. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.