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Natural hazard risk in Sarasota County, Florida

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively High (score 98.1 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$273.0 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1968
46[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$856.8 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
86[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index gives Sarasota County an overall Risk Index rating of Relatively High, with a score of 98.1[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores within the county are lightning, hurricane and inland flooding[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA's National Risk Index estimates Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Sarasota County at $273.0 million a year[1]. This is FEMA's estimate of average yearly loss, not money anyone paid[7]. FEMA's largest hazard-type estimates are hurricane ($180.4 million a year), inland flooding ($67.2 million a year) and coastal flooding ($7.3 million a year)[8]. FEMA rates social vulnerability Relatively High (score 67.0)[9]. FEMA rates community resilience Very Low (score 9.1) compared with other US counties[10]. The index does not predict next year's losses[7].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
LightningVery High$5.1 million[11]
HurricaneVery High$180.4 million[12]
Inland FloodingRelatively High$67.2 million[13]
Coastal FloodingRelatively High$7.3 million[14]
WildfireRelatively Moderate$1.9 million[15]
TornadoRelatively High$6.9 million[16]
Heat WaveRelatively Moderate$2.3 million[17]
Strong WindRelatively High$1.4 million[18]
LandslideVery Low$658[19]
DroughtRelatively Low$41,000[20]
EarthquakeVery Low$85,000[21]
Cold WaveRelatively Low$351,000[22]
HailVery Low$59,000[23]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: avalanche, ice storm, volcanic activity[24].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityRelatively High67.0[9]
Community resilienceVery Low9.1[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively High (score 95.6)[13] and coastal flooding risk Relatively High (score 93.6)[14]. OpenFEMA lists 37,772 residential flood insurance contracts in force as of 2026-08-03, out of 210,450 residential structures[25]. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area, 42.2% of homes are insured[25]. OpenFEMA data show 14,415 NFIP claims for losses from 1978 to 2026, and NFIP paid $856.8 million in total[3]. For the flood zone of an address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[26].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[13] Relatively High, $67.2 million expected loss a year
Coastal Flooding, FEMA risk rating[14] Relatively High, $7.3 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[25] 37,772 of 210,450 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[25] 41,803, of which 17,639 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 14,415 filed, $856.8 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[26]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 46 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Sarasota County since 1968[2]. Hurricane declarations number 21 of them[2]. The most recent listed is DR-4834-FL for Hurricane Milton, declared 2024-10-11[27]. NOAA's tornado database records 86 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024[4]. The strongest were rated F3[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Sarasota County, since 1968
Incident type Declarations
Hurricane[2] 21
Severe Storm[2] 7
Tropical Storm[2] 5
Fire[2] 5
Freezing[2] 3
Flood[2] 2
Coastal Storm[2] 2
Tornado[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
DR-4834-FL[27] Hurricane Milton 2024-10-11
EM-3622-FL[27] Hurricane Milton 2024-10-07
DR-4828-FL[27] Hurricane Helene 2024-09-28
EM-3615-FL[27] Tropical Storm Helene 2024-09-24
DR-4806-FL[27] Hurricane Debby 2024-08-10

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Hurricanes

Before

  • Know your hurricane risk, including rain, wind and tornadoes far inland from landfall.
  • Learn your evacuation zone and routes, and practice them with your household and pets.
  • Keep insurance policies and ID current, with password-protected digital copies.
  • Clear drains and gutters, bring in outdoor furniture and consider hurricane shutters.
  • Keep your phone charged, buy backup chargers and gather supplies, including medication and pet supplies.

During

  • If you are in a mandatory evacuation zone and officials order an evacuation, leave right away.
  • For high winds, take shelter in a designated storm shelter or an interior room.
  • If you are trapped by flooding, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, hurricanes

Floods

Before

  • Check your flood risk with FEMA's Flood Map Service Center, and remember that floods do not follow map lines.
  • Sign up for your community's warning system. NOAA Weather Radio also broadcasts alerts.
  • Buy flood insurance through the NFIP well before a disaster. Homeowners policies do not cover flooding, and a new policy typically takes up to 30 days to go into effect.
  • Make a household plan with evacuation routes, shelter locations and what to do in a flash flood.
  • Keep important documents in a waterproof container and make password-protected digital copies.

During

  • If you are told to evacuate, leave right away and never drive around barricades.
  • Do not walk, swim or drive through floodwater. Six inches of moving water can knock you down.
  • If you are trapped in a building, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, floods

Wildfires

Before

  • Sign up for community alerts and watch for air quality alerts.
  • Make sure everyone knows the evacuation plan, including for school, work and other places you go often.
  • Keep a fire-resistant zone of at least 30 feet around your home, clear of leaves and debris.
  • Use fire-resistant building materials and keep a hose long enough to reach every part of your property.
  • Pick a room you can seal off from outside air and keep a portable air cleaner ready.

During

  • Leave right away when authorities tell you to evacuate.
  • If you are trapped, call 9-1-1 with your location and turn on lights to help rescuers find you.
  • If you are not ordered to leave but there is smoke, stay in a safe indoor place or go to a community building with less smoke.

Source: Ready.gov, wildfires

Questions people ask

Is Sarasota County at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding Relatively High (score 95.6) and coastal flooding Relatively High (score 93.6) compared with other US counties[13][14]. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center shows the flood zone for a specific address[26].
Does Sarasota County have hurricane risk?
FEMA rates hurricane risk Very High (score 99.5) compared with other US counties[12]. OpenFEMA lists 21 hurricane declarations that include the county since 1968[2].
Does Sarasota County get tornadoes?
NOAA's tornado database records 86 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024[4]. FEMA rates tornado risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[16].
Is Sarasota County at risk of earthquakes?
FEMA rates earthquake risk Very Low (score 34.7) compared with other US counties[21]. A low rating does not mean no damage can happen[7].
How many disasters have been declared in Sarasota County?
OpenFEMA lists 46 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include the county since 1968[2].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Sarasota County is $273.0 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively High, score 97.1). Of this, buildings account for $248.4 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for $24.1... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 46 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Sarasota County since 1968 (28 major disaster, 18 emergency or fire management). By incident type: hurricane 21, severe storm 7, tropical storm 5, fire 5, freezing 3, flood 2, coastal storm 2, tornado 1.... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 14,415 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Sarasota County, 10,542 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $856.8 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 86 recorded tornadoes touched Sarasota County. The strongest were rated F3 (most recent of them on 1985-03-17). 1 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2023-10-11. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Sarasota County is Relatively High, with a Risk Index score of 98.1 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Sarasota County are lightning (99.5, Very High), hurricane (99.5, Very High), inland flooding (95.6, Relatively High). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published scores; FEMA's... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  8. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Sarasota County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are hurricane ($180.4 million a year), inland flooding ($67.2 million a year), coastal flooding ($7.3 million a year), out of $273.0 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Sarasota County is Relatively High (score 67.0). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Sarasota County is Very Low (score 9.1). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Sarasota County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 99.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $5.1 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 96.18 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Sarasota County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 99.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $180.4 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 0.23 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172 years for the... FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Sarasota County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 95.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $67.2 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 1.18 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of... FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), coastal flooding in Sarasota County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 93.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $7.3 million a year (rating Relatively High). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 3.6529 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Sarasota County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 93.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.9 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0069 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Sarasota County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 92.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $6.9 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.88 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Sarasota County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 89.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.3 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 3.02 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of... FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Sarasota County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 87.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.4 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.62 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Sarasota County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 43.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $658 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Sarasota County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 37.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $41,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 18.58 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Sarasota County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 34.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $85,000 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0003 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Sarasota County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 31.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $351,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 3.16 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Sarasota County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 20.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $59,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 1.28 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Sarasota County: avalanche, ice storm, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically possible there. FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  25. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 37,772 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Sarasota County, out of 210,450 residential structures, a penetration rate of 17.9%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 41,803 residential structures and 17,639... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  26. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  27. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.