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Natural hazard risk in Flagler County, Florida

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively Moderate (score 82.7 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$41.6 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1977
36[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$78.4 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
28[4]

FEMA rates the overall natural hazard risk for Flagler County as Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties, with a Risk Index score of 82.7 out of 100[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores within the county are hurricane, wildfire and tornado[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA's National Risk Index estimates $41.6 million a year in Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Flagler County, and rates that Relatively Low[1]. Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of average yearly loss, not money anyone paid[7]. FEMA's largest estimates by hazard are hurricane at $18.6 million a year, inland flooding at $15.9 million a year and tornado at $3.5 million a year[8]. FEMA rates social vulnerability Relatively High, with a score of 60.8[9]. FEMA rates community resilience Relatively Moderate, with a score of 40.3[10]. The index does not predict next year's losses[7].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
HurricaneRelatively High$18.6 million[11]
WildfireRelatively Low$873,000[12]
TornadoRelatively Moderate$3.5 million[13]
Inland FloodingRelatively Moderate$15.9 million[14]
LightningRelatively Moderate$522,000[15]
Heat WaveRelatively Low$801,000[16]
Coastal FloodingRelatively Moderate$790,000[17]
Strong WindRelatively Low$361,000[18]
EarthquakeVery Low$123,000[19]
LandslideVery Low$200[20]
DroughtVery Low$12,000[21]
Cold WaveVery Low$181,000[22]
HailVery Low$17,000[23]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: avalanche, ice storm, volcanic activity[24].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityRelatively High60.8[9]
Community resilienceRelatively Moderate40.3[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates coastal flooding Relatively Moderate (score 67.6) and inland flooding Relatively Moderate (score 79.1) for Flagler County[17][14]. OpenFEMA data as of 2026-08-03 lists 7,540 residential flood insurance contracts in force, out of 49,625 residential structures[25]. OpenFEMA NFIP claims data lists 2,153 claims for losses in the county from 1978 to 2026, and the NFIP paid $78.4 million in total[3]. The years with the most paid claims were 2017, 2022 and 2016[3]. To learn about the flood zone of an address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[26].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[14] Relatively Moderate, $15.9 million expected loss a year
Coastal Flooding, FEMA risk rating[17] Relatively Moderate, $790,000 expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[25] 7,540 of 49,625 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[25] 2,482, of which 2,864 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 2,153 filed, $78.4 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[26]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 36 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Flagler County since 1977[2]. Hurricane declarations number 22 of them[2]. The most recent listed is DR-4834-FL for Hurricane Milton, declared 2024-10-11[27]. NOAA's tornado database records 28 tornadoes touching the county from 1950 to 2024, and the strongest were rated EF2[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Flagler County, since 1977
Incident type Declarations
Hurricane[2] 22
Severe Storm[2] 4
Tropical Storm[2] 4
Fire[2] 3
Freezing[2] 2
Coastal Storm[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
DR-4834-FL[27] Hurricane Milton 2024-10-11
EM-3622-FL[27] Hurricane Milton 2024-10-07
DR-4806-FL[27] Hurricane Debby 2024-08-10
EM-3605-FL[27] Tropical Storm Debby 2024-08-03
DR-4734-FL[27] Hurricane Idalia 2023-08-31

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Hurricanes

Before

  • Know your hurricane risk, including rain, wind and tornadoes far inland from landfall.
  • Learn your evacuation zone and routes, and practice them with your household and pets.
  • Keep insurance policies and ID current, with password-protected digital copies.
  • Clear drains and gutters, bring in outdoor furniture and consider hurricane shutters.
  • Keep your phone charged, buy backup chargers and gather supplies, including medication and pet supplies.

During

  • If you are in a mandatory evacuation zone and officials order an evacuation, leave right away.
  • For high winds, take shelter in a designated storm shelter or an interior room.
  • If you are trapped by flooding, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, hurricanes

Tornadoes

Before

  • Learn the warning signs: a rotating funnel cloud, an approaching cloud of debris or a loud roar like a freight train.
  • Sign up for community warning systems and learn what your local sirens sound like.
  • Pick a safe spot, such as a safe room built to FEMA criteria or an ICC 500 storm shelter, and practice getting there.
  • Include your pets in the household emergency plan.
  • Keep supplies, food, water and medication in case you have to stay home for a long time.

During

  • Go right away to the safe place you picked in advance.
  • Protect your head and neck with your arms and stay away from windows, doors and outside walls.
  • No place in a car is fully safe. If you can get lower than the road, leave the car and lie down there.

Source: Ready.gov, tornadoes

Floods

Before

  • Check your flood risk with FEMA's Flood Map Service Center, and remember that floods do not follow map lines.
  • Sign up for your community's warning system. NOAA Weather Radio also broadcasts alerts.
  • Buy flood insurance through the NFIP well before a disaster. Homeowners policies do not cover flooding, and a new policy typically takes up to 30 days to go into effect.
  • Make a household plan with evacuation routes, shelter locations and what to do in a flash flood.
  • Keep important documents in a waterproof container and make password-protected digital copies.

During

  • If you are told to evacuate, leave right away and never drive around barricades.
  • Do not walk, swim or drive through floodwater. Six inches of moving water can knock you down.
  • If you are trapped in a building, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, floods

Questions people ask

Is Flagler County at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates coastal flooding and inland flooding Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties[17][14]. FEMA estimates inland flooding at $15.9 million a year in Expected Annual Loss[14].
Is Flagler County at risk of hurricanes?
FEMA rates hurricane risk Relatively High for Flagler County compared with other US counties, with a score of 94.9[11]. OpenFEMA lists 22 hurricane declarations that include the county since 1977[2].
Does Flagler County get tornadoes?
NOAA's tornado database records 28 tornadoes touching Flagler County from 1950 to 2024, and the strongest were rated EF2[4]. FEMA rates tornado risk Relatively Moderate[13].
Is Flagler County at risk of earthquakes?
FEMA rates earthquake risk Very Low for Flagler County compared with other US counties[19].
How can I check the flood zone of an address in Flagler County?
FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps, and you can look up an address there[26]. County ratings do not tell you the flood zone of a single address[26].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Flagler County is $41.6 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively Low, score 80.5). Of this, buildings account for $36.1 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for $5.3... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 36 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Flagler County since 1977 (21 major disaster, 15 emergency or fire management). By incident type: hurricane 22, severe storm 4, tropical storm 4, fire 3, freezing 2, coastal storm 1. Biological (such as... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 2,153 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Flagler County, 1,556 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $78.4 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid).... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 28 recorded tornadoes touched Flagler County. The strongest were rated EF2 (most recent of them on 2023-10-12). 0 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2023-10-12. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Flagler County is Relatively Moderate, with a Risk Index score of 82.7 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Flagler County are hurricane (94.9, Relatively High), wildfire (88.1, Relatively Low), tornado (80.9, Relatively Moderate). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published scores;... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  8. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Flagler County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are hurricane ($18.6 million a year), inland flooding ($15.9 million a year), tornado ($3.5 million a year), out of $41.6 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Flagler County is Relatively High (score 60.8). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Flagler County is Relatively Moderate (score 40.3). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Flagler County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 94.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $18.6 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 0.27 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172 years... FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Flagler County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 88.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $873,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0052 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Flagler County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 80.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $3.5 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.32 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Flagler County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 79.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $15.9 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 1.25 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of... FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Flagler County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 75.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $522,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 68.46 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Flagler County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 70.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $801,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 3.46 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), coastal flooding in Flagler County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 67.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $790,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 1.3645 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Flagler County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 41.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $361,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 1.12 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Flagler County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 39.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $123,000 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0006 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Flagler County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 27.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $200 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Flagler County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 25.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $12,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 14.72 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Flagler County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 19.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $181,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 2.67 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Flagler County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 6.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $17,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 2.07 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Flagler County: avalanche, ice storm, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically possible there. FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  25. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 7,540 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Flagler County, out of 49,625 residential structures, a penetration rate of 15.2%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 2,482 residential structures and 2,864 contracts,... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  26. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  27. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.