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Natural hazard risk in Kern County, California

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively High (score 98.8 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$417.0 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1967
38[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$1.5 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
15[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall natural hazard risk for Kern County Relatively High compared with other US counties[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores in the county are wildfire, heat wave and earthquake[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA estimates Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Kern County at $417.0 million a year[1]. This is a FEMA estimate of average yearly loss, not money anyone paid[7]. FEMA's Expected Annual Loss values are largest for earthquake, inland flooding and heat wave, in that order[8]. FEMA rates Social Vulnerability Relatively High, which describes how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause[9]. FEMA rates Community Resilience Very Low, which describes a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards[10]. The index does not predict next year's losses[7].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
WildfireRelatively High$38.5 million[11]
Heat WaveRelatively High$42.5 million[12]
EarthquakeRelatively High$184.0 million[13]
LandslideRelatively High$758,000[14]
Inland FloodingRelatively High$147.2 million[15]
DroughtRelatively High$2.0 million[16]
LightningRelatively High$761,000[17]
Winter WeatherRelatively Moderate$190,000[18]
HailRelatively Low$414,000[19]
Volcanic ActivityVery Low$25[20]
AvalancheVery Low$336[21]
Strong WindRelatively Low$399,000[22]
TornadoVery Low$186,000[23]
Cold WaveVery Low$4,855[24]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: coastal flooding, hurricane, ice storm, tsunami[25].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityRelatively High61.0[9]
Community resilienceVery Low6.5[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively High in Kern County compared with other US counties[15]. OpenFEMA lists 2,955 residential flood insurance contracts in force, a penetration rate of 1.1% of residential structures, as of 2026-08-03[26]. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area, 19.7% of homes are insured[26]. OpenFEMA NFIP claims data lists 280 claims for losses in Kern County from 1978 to 2026, and NFIP paid $1.5 million in total[3]. To check a specific address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[27].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[15] Relatively High, $147.2 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[26] 2,955 of 259,635 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[26] 12,851, of which 2,527 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 280 filed, $1.5 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[27]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 38 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Kern County since 1967[2]. Of these, 17 were for fire and 7 for flood[2]. The most recent listed is the Borel Fire, declared 2024-07-27[28]. NOAA's tornado database records 15 tornadoes touching Kern County from 1950 to 2024, and none were rated F3/EF3 or stronger[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Kern County, since 1967
Incident type Declarations
Fire[2] 17
Flood[2] 7
Severe Storm[2] 6
Freezing[2] 3
Hurricane[2] 2
Earthquake[2] 1
Coastal Storm[2] 1
Drought[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
FM-5522-CA[28] Borel Fire 2024-07-27
DR-4750-CA[28] Tropical Storm Hilary 2023-11-21
DR-4699-CA[28] Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides 2023-04-03
EM-3592-CA[28] Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides 2023-03-10
FM-5416-CA[28] French Fire 2021-08-25

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Wildfires

Before

  • Sign up for community alerts and watch for air quality alerts.
  • Make sure everyone knows the evacuation plan, including for school, work and other places you go often.
  • Keep a fire-resistant zone of at least 30 feet around your home, clear of leaves and debris.
  • Use fire-resistant building materials and keep a hose long enough to reach every part of your property.
  • Pick a room you can seal off from outside air and keep a portable air cleaner ready.

During

  • Leave right away when authorities tell you to evacuate.
  • If you are trapped, call 9-1-1 with your location and turn on lights to help rescuers find you.
  • If you are not ordered to leave but there is smoke, stay in a safe indoor place or go to a community building with less smoke.

Source: Ready.gov, wildfires

Extreme heat

Before

  • Learn the signs of heat illness and how to respond.
  • Do not rely on a fan as your main way to stay cool. Fans do not lower body temperature.
  • Find cool public places, such as libraries or malls, or ask your local health department.
  • Keep heat out with window shades, weather stripping and insulation.
  • If you cannot afford cooling costs, contact LIHEAP for help.

During

  • Never leave a person or an animal in a parked car in warm weather.
  • If your home has no air conditioning, go to a cooling center.
  • Wear light, loose clothing, drink plenty of fluids and avoid hard outdoor work in the middle of the day.

Source: Ready.gov, extreme heat

Earthquakes

Before

  • Practice Drop, Cover, and Hold On with your family and coworkers.
  • Sign up for earthquake alerts that can warn you before shaking starts.
  • Make a plan with an out-of-state contact and a place to meet if you get separated.
  • Anchor heavy items such as bookcases, refrigerators and water heaters, and keep heavy things on low shelves.
  • Consider earthquake insurance. Standard homeowners policies do not cover earthquake damage.

During

  • Drop to your hands and knees, cover your head and neck, and hold on until the shaking stops.
  • Indoors, stay where you are and avoid doorways. Outdoors, move to an open area away from buildings and power lines.
  • If you are driving, pull over, stop and set the parking brake.

Source: Ready.gov, earthquakes

Questions people ask

Is Kern County at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively High in Kern County compared with other US counties[15]. For a specific address, check FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[27].
Is Kern County at risk of earthquakes?
FEMA rates earthquake risk Relatively High in Kern County, with an Expected Annual Loss estimate of $184.0 million a year[13].
Does Kern County have tornadoes?
NOAA's tornado database records 15 tornadoes touching Kern County from 1950 to 2024[4]. FEMA rates tornado risk Very Low compared with other US counties[23].
Is Kern County at risk of hurricanes?
FEMA rates hurricane risk Not Applicable for Kern County[25].
How many disasters were declared in Kern County?
OpenFEMA lists 38 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Kern County since 1967[2].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Kern County is $417.0 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively High, score 98.7). Of this, buildings account for $318.6 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for $83.5... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 38 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Kern County since 1967 (18 major disaster, 20 emergency or fire management). By incident type: fire 17, flood 7, severe storm 6, freezing 3, hurricane 2, earthquake 1, coastal storm 1, drought 1.... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 280 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Kern County, 142 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $1.5 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid). Years... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 15 recorded tornadoes touched Kern County. The strongest were rated F1 (most recent of them on 1991-03-17). 0 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2019-06-02. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Kern County is Relatively High, with a Risk Index score of 98.8 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Kern County are wildfire (99.7, Relatively High), heat wave (99.4, Relatively High), earthquake (99.4, Relatively High). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published scores;... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  8. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Kern County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are earthquake ($184.0 million a year), inland flooding ($147.2 million a year), heat wave ($42.5 million a year), out of $417.0 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Kern County is Relatively High (score 61.0). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Kern County is Very Low (score 6.5). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Kern County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 99.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $38.5 million a year (rating Relatively High). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0055 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Kern County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 99.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $42.5 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 7.49 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Kern County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 99.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $184.0 million a year (rating Relatively High). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0816 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Kern County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 98.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $758,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Kern County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 98.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $147.2 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 5.64 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 26... FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Kern County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 94.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2.0 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 96.74 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Kern County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 84.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $761,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 8.04 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), winter weather in Kern County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 82.1 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $190,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 5.43 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Kern County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 67.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $414,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 0.1 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), volcanic activity in Kern County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 59.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $25 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), avalanche in Kern County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 46.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $336 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.01 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 28 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Kern County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 45.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $399,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 0.06 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Kern County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 19.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $186,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.37 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Kern County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 3.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $4,855 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  25. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Kern County: coastal flooding, hurricane, ice storm, tsunami. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically possible... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  26. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 2,955 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Kern County, out of 259,635 residential structures, a penetration rate of 1.1%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 12,851 residential structures and 2,527 contracts, a... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  27. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  28. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.