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Natural hazard risk in Hot Spring County, Arkansas

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively Low (score 55.5 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$13.6 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1982
18[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$294,000[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
38[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates the overall natural hazard risk for Hot Spring County, Arkansas, Relatively Low compared with other US counties, with a Risk Index score of 55.5 out of 100[5]. Within the county, the hazards with the highest FEMA scores are ice storm, lightning and strong wind[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA's National Risk Index estimates Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Hot Spring County at $13.6 million a year, rated Very Low[1]. This is FEMA's estimate of average yearly economic loss, not money anyone paid, and it does not predict next year's losses[7]. Inland flooding has the largest single estimate at $6.3 million a year[8], and FEMA rates ice storm risk Relatively High with a score of 93.2[9]. FEMA rates social vulnerability Relatively High (score 77.3), which describes how susceptible social groups are to harm from hazards[10]. FEMA rates community resilience Relatively Low (score 29.7), which describes the ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards[11].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
Ice StormRelatively High$965,000[9]
LightningRelatively High$717,000[12]
Strong WindRelatively Moderate$1.0 million[13]
HailRelatively Moderate$600,000[14]
Heat WaveRelatively Low$984,000[15]
EarthquakeRelatively Low$924,000[16]
TornadoRelatively Moderate$1.7 million[17]
LandslideRelatively Low$2,405[18]
Inland FloodingRelatively Low$6.3 million[8]
Winter WeatherRelatively Low$57,000[19]
WildfireVery Low$47,000[20]
HurricaneVery Low$76,000[21]
DroughtVery Low$11,000[22]
Cold WaveVery Low$110,000[23]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity[24].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityRelatively High77.3[10]
Community resilienceRelatively Low29.7[11]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively Low for Hot Spring County, with Expected Annual Loss of $6.3 million a year[8]. OpenFEMA data as of 2026-08-03 show 53 residential flood insurance contracts in force out of 13,455 residential structures, a penetration rate of 0.4%[25]. A HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP claims for losses from 1978 to 2026 counts 20 claims, 15 of them paid, and NFIP paid $294,000 in total[3]. To check the flood zone of an address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[26].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[8] Relatively Low, $6.3 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[25] 53 of 13,455 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[25] 361, of which 48 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 20 filed, $294,000 paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[26]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 18 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Hot Spring County since 1982, of which 13 were major disasters[2]. The most recent is EM-3636-AR, Severe Winter Storm, declared 2026-01-24[27]. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center tornado database records 38 tornadoes in the county from 1950 to 2024, and the strongest were rated F4[4]. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2022-11-04[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Hot Spring County, since 1982
Incident type Declarations
Severe Storm[2] 8
Hurricane[2] 3
Severe Ice Storm[2] 3
Flood[2] 2
Tornado[2] 1
Winter Storm[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
EM-3636-AR[27] Severe Winter Storm 2026-01-24
DR-4873-AR[27] Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding 2025-05-21
DR-4865-AR[27] Severe Storms And Tornadoes 2025-05-08
EM-3627-AR[27] Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding 2025-04-05
EM-3541-AR[27] Hurricane Laura 2020-08-27

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Winter storms and cold

Before

  • Insulate your home and learn how to keep pipes from freezing.
  • Install and test smoke and carbon monoxide detectors with battery backup.
  • Keep several days of supplies in case the power goes out, including medication and pet needs.
  • Put an emergency kit in your car with jumper cables, sand, blankets, water and snacks, and keep the tank full.

During

  • Under a winter storm warning, find shelter right away.
  • Stay off the roads if you can. If you are stuck in your car, stay inside it.
  • Run generators and grills only outdoors, away from windows, and never heat your home with an oven or stove.

Source: Ready.gov, winter storms and cold

Tornadoes

Before

  • Learn the warning signs: a rotating funnel cloud, an approaching cloud of debris or a loud roar like a freight train.
  • Sign up for community warning systems and learn what your local sirens sound like.
  • Pick a safe spot, such as a safe room built to FEMA criteria or an ICC 500 storm shelter, and practice getting there.
  • Include your pets in the household emergency plan.
  • Keep supplies, food, water and medication in case you have to stay home for a long time.

During

  • Go right away to the safe place you picked in advance.
  • Protect your head and neck with your arms and stay away from windows, doors and outside walls.
  • No place in a car is fully safe. If you can get lower than the road, leave the car and lie down there.

Source: Ready.gov, tornadoes

Questions people ask

Is Hot Spring County, Arkansas at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively Low compared with other US counties, with Expected Annual Loss of $6.3 million a year[8]. NFIP paid $294,000 in total on claims for losses from 1978 to 2026[3].
How often do tornadoes hit Hot Spring County?
NOAA's tornado database records 38 tornadoes in Hot Spring County from 1950 to 2024, and 5 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger[4]. FEMA rates tornado risk Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties[17].
Is Hot Spring County at risk of earthquakes?
FEMA rates earthquake risk Relatively Low compared with other US counties, with Expected Annual Loss of $924,000 a year[16].
How many disasters have been declared in Hot Spring County?
OpenFEMA lists 18 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Hot Spring County since 1982[2]. Severe storms account for 8 of them[2].
How do I check if a home in Hot Spring County is in a flood zone?
Look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center or ask the local floodplain manager[26]. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of a single address[26].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Hot Spring County is $13.6 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Very Low, score 47.0). Of this, buildings account for $9.2 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for $4.3 million... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 18 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Hot Spring County since 1982 (13 major disaster, 5 emergency or fire management). By incident type: severe storm 8, hurricane 3, severe ice storm 3, flood 2, tornado 1, winter storm 1. Biological (such as... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 20 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Hot Spring County, 15 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $294,000 in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid). Years... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 38 recorded tornadoes touched Hot Spring County. The strongest were rated F4 (most recent of them on 1997-03-01). 5 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2022-11-04. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Hot Spring County is Relatively Low, with a Risk Index score of 55.5 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Hot Spring County are ice storm (93.2, Relatively High), lightning (86.0, Relatively High), strong wind (81.6, Relatively Moderate). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  8. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Hot Spring County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 58.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $6.3 million a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 1.82 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 26... FEMA National Risk Index
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), ice storm in Hot Spring County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 93.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $965,000 a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 1.13 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 68 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Hot Spring County is Relatively High (score 77.3). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Hot Spring County is Relatively Low (score 29.7). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Hot Spring County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 86.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $717,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 64.17 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Hot Spring County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 81.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.0 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 3.33 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of... FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Hot Spring County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 78.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $600,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 5 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Hot Spring County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 77.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $984,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 18.11 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Hot Spring County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 76.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $924,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0033 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Hot Spring County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 68.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.7 million a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 0.4 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Hot Spring County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 62.8 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2,405 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), winter weather in Hot Spring County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 55.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $57,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 4.05 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Hot Spring County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 55.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $47,000 a year (rating Very Low). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0013 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hurricane in Hot Spring County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 53.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $76,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.04 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 172 years for the Atlantic... FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Hot Spring County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 26.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $11,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 10.81 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Hot Spring County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 14.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $110,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.79 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Hot Spring County: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  25. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 53 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Hot Spring County, out of 13,455 residential structures, a penetration rate of 0.4%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 361 residential structures and 48 contracts, a... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  26. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  27. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.