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Natural hazard risk in Coconino County, Arizona

Updated October 30, 2026. Based on FEMA, NOAA and OpenFEMA data. Published by Humblebee.

FEMA overall Risk Index rating: Relatively Moderate (score 94.2 of 100)[5]

Expected annual loss (FEMA)
$130.9 million[1]
Federal disaster declarations since 1970
22[2]
NFIP flood claims paid, 1978 to 2026
$5.3 million[3]
Tornadoes recorded, 1950 to 2024
46[4]

FEMA's National Risk Index rates overall natural hazard risk in Coconino County Relatively Moderate compared with other US counties[5]. The hazards with the highest FEMA scores within the county are lightning, wildfire and winter weather[6].

FEMA risk ratings for each hazard

Ratings and expected losses from the FEMA National Risk Index. Each rating compares this county with all US counties for that hazard, from Very Low to Very High. They are planning estimates, not predictions, and they do not describe any single property.

FEMA lists $130.9 million a year in Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Coconino County[1]. This is a FEMA estimate of average yearly loss, not money anyone paid[7]. FEMA's largest hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values are inland flooding at $85.7 million a year, wildfire at $28.5 million a year and lightning at $5.5 million a year[8]. FEMA rates social vulnerability Relatively Moderate, which describes how susceptible social groups are to harm from natural hazards[9]. FEMA also rates community resilience Relatively Moderate, which describes a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards[10].

Hazards sorted by FEMA hazard-type Risk Index score, highest first
HazardFEMA risk ratingExpected annual loss
LightningVery High$5.5 million[11]
WildfireRelatively High$28.5 million[12]
Winter WeatherVery High$1.2 million[13]
LandslideRelatively Moderate$309,000[14]
Inland FloodingRelatively High$85.7 million[15]
EarthquakeRelatively Moderate$4.7 million[16]
Volcanic ActivityRelatively Low$2,857[17]
AvalancheRelatively Moderate$457,000[18]
Cold WaveRelatively Moderate$3.2 million[19]
Heat WaveRelatively Low$600,000[20]
Ice StormRelatively Low$103,000[21]
HailRelatively Low$296,000[22]
DroughtVery Low$11,000[23]
TornadoVery Low$296,000[24]
Strong WindVery Low$101,000[25]

Rated Not Applicable by FEMA for this county: coastal flooding, tsunami[26].

Social vulnerability and community resilience

FEMA uses these two ratings to scale expected losses into the Risk Index.

FEMA measureRatingScore
Social vulnerabilityRelatively Moderate58.7[9]
Community resilienceRelatively Moderate46.1[10]

Flooding and flood insurance

FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[15]. OpenFEMA lists 733 residential flood insurance contracts in force in the county, a penetration rate of 1.4%[27]. In FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area, 29.6% of homes are insured[27]. OpenFEMA data show NFIP paid $5.3 million on 202 paid claims for losses from 1978 to 2026[3]. To learn about a specific address, use FEMA's Flood Map Service Center[28].

Measure Value
Inland Flooding, FEMA risk rating[15] Relatively High, $85.7 million expected loss a year
NFIP residential flood policies in force (2026)[27] 733 of 52,606 homes
Homes in FEMA's mapped high-risk flood area (SFHA)[27] 1,073, of which 318 insured
NFIP flood claims, 1978 to 2026[3] 295 filed, $5.3 million paid

Is a specific address in a flood zone? Only FEMA's flood maps answer that, property by property[28]. This page describes the whole county.

Search an address on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center

Disaster declarations and tornado records

OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Coconino County since 1970[2]. The most recent is the Pipeline Fire, declared 2022-06-12[29]. NOAA's tornado database records 46 tornadoes that touched the county from 1950 to 2024[4]. The most recent was on 2024-10-18[4].

Federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Coconino County, since 1970
Incident type Declarations
Fire[2] 11
Flood[2] 5
Severe Storm[2] 4
Drought[2] 1
Hurricane[2] 1
Most recent declarations
Declaration Incident Declared
FM-5441-AZ[29] Pipeline Fire 2022-06-12
FM-5434-AZ[29] Tunnel 2 Fire 2022-04-19
DR-4620-AZ[29] Severe Storms And Flooding 2021-09-13
FM-5284-AZ[29] Museum Fire 2019-07-22
FM-5236-AZ[29] Tinder Fire 2018-04-29

How to prepare

Steps from Ready.gov, FEMA's preparedness site, for the hazards with the highest FEMA ratings here. Follow instructions from local officials and the National Weather Service when a warning is issued.

Wildfires

Before

  • Sign up for community alerts and watch for air quality alerts.
  • Make sure everyone knows the evacuation plan, including for school, work and other places you go often.
  • Keep a fire-resistant zone of at least 30 feet around your home, clear of leaves and debris.
  • Use fire-resistant building materials and keep a hose long enough to reach every part of your property.
  • Pick a room you can seal off from outside air and keep a portable air cleaner ready.

During

  • Leave right away when authorities tell you to evacuate.
  • If you are trapped, call 9-1-1 with your location and turn on lights to help rescuers find you.
  • If you are not ordered to leave but there is smoke, stay in a safe indoor place or go to a community building with less smoke.

Source: Ready.gov, wildfires

Winter storms and cold

Before

  • Insulate your home and learn how to keep pipes from freezing.
  • Install and test smoke and carbon monoxide detectors with battery backup.
  • Keep several days of supplies in case the power goes out, including medication and pet needs.
  • Put an emergency kit in your car with jumper cables, sand, blankets, water and snacks, and keep the tank full.

During

  • Under a winter storm warning, find shelter right away.
  • Stay off the roads if you can. If you are stuck in your car, stay inside it.
  • Run generators and grills only outdoors, away from windows, and never heat your home with an oven or stove.

Source: Ready.gov, winter storms and cold

Floods

Before

  • Check your flood risk with FEMA's Flood Map Service Center, and remember that floods do not follow map lines.
  • Sign up for your community's warning system. NOAA Weather Radio also broadcasts alerts.
  • Buy flood insurance through the NFIP well before a disaster. Homeowners policies do not cover flooding, and a new policy typically takes up to 30 days to go into effect.
  • Make a household plan with evacuation routes, shelter locations and what to do in a flash flood.
  • Keep important documents in a waterproof container and make password-protected digital copies.

During

  • If you are told to evacuate, leave right away and never drive around barricades.
  • Do not walk, swim or drive through floodwater. Six inches of moving water can knock you down.
  • If you are trapped in a building, go to the highest level, but do not climb into a closed attic.

Source: Ready.gov, floods

Questions people ask

Is Coconino County at risk of flooding?
FEMA rates inland flooding risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[15]. FEMA lists inland flooding at $85.7 million a year in Expected Annual Loss[8].
Is Coconino County at risk of wildfire?
FEMA rates wildfire risk Relatively High compared with other US counties[12]. OpenFEMA lists 11 fire declarations that include the county since 1970[2].
Is Coconino County at risk of tornadoes?
FEMA rates tornado risk Very Low compared with other US counties[24]. NOAA's tornado database records 46 tornadoes in the county from 1950 to 2024[4].
How many disasters have been declared in Coconino County?
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include the county since 1970[2].
How do I check my flood zone?
Flood zones apply to specific properties. Look up an address in FEMA's Flood Map Service Center or ask the local floodplain manager[28].

Facts and sources

  1. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Expected Annual Loss from all 18 natural hazards in Coconino County is $130.9 million a year (Expected Annual Loss rating Relatively Moderate, score 93.1). Of this, buildings account for $95.2 million, injuries and deaths (converted to dollars by FEMA) for... FEMA National Risk Index
  2. OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries list 22 federal disaster declarations for natural hazards that include Coconino County since 1970 (9 major disaster, 13 emergency or fire management). By incident type: fire 11, flood 5, severe storm 4, drought 1, hurricane 1. Biological (such as COVID-19) and other... OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations
  3. HazardFacts tally of OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims (losses from 1978 to 2026): 295 National Flood Insurance Program claims were filed for losses in Coconino County, 202 of them with a payment, and NFIP paid $5.3 million in total (building, contents and increased cost of compliance, in dollars of the year paid).... OpenFEMA NFIP claims
  4. NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1950 to 2024): 46 recorded tornadoes touched Coconino County. The strongest were rated EF3 (most recent of them on 2010-10-06). 1 were rated F3/EF3 or stronger. The most recent recorded tornado was on 2024-10-18. Ratings used the Fujita scale until early 2007 and the... NOAA Storm Prediction Center
  5. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): the overall natural hazard Risk Index rating for Coconino County is Relatively Moderate, with a Risk Index score of 94.2 out of 100. The score is the county's percentile rank among all US counties. FEMA National Risk Index
  6. Among the 18 hazards in the FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), the hazards with the highest hazard-type Risk Index scores for Coconino County are lightning (99.5, Very High), wildfire (99.3, Relatively High), winter weather (98.3, Very High). HazardFacts sorted FEMA's published scores; FEMA's... FEMA National Risk Index
  7. FEMA's National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025): Expected Annual Loss is FEMA's estimate of the average economic loss in dollars from natural hazards each year. The index is not meant to predict how much damage a community will have in the next year, and a hazard can still cause damage where a rating is low. Scores... FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  8. HazardFacts sorted FEMA's hazard-type Expected Annual Loss values for Coconino County (National Risk Index v1.20): the largest are inland flooding ($85.7 million a year), wildfire ($28.5 million a year), lightning ($5.5 million a year), out of $130.9 million a year from all 18 hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  9. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Social Vulnerability rating for Coconino County is Relatively Moderate (score 58.7). FEMA describes social vulnerability as how susceptible social groups are to the harm natural hazards cause. FEMA National Risk Index
  10. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025): Community Resilience rating for Coconino County is Relatively Moderate (score 46.1). FEMA describes community resilience as a community's ability to prepare for, withstand and recover from hazards. FEMA National Risk Index
  11. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), lightning in Coconino County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 99.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $5.5 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 44.38 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 24 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  12. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), wildfire in Coconino County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 99.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $28.5 million a year (rating Relatively High). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0112 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  13. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), winter weather in Coconino County: Risk Index rating Very High (score 98.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $1.2 million a year (rating Very High). Annualized frequency 8.2 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  14. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), landslide in Coconino County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 97.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $309,000 a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA National Risk Index
  15. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), inland flooding in Coconino County: Risk Index rating Relatively High (score 96.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $85.7 million a year (rating Relatively High). Annualized frequency 8.04 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of... FEMA National Risk Index
  16. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), earthquake in Coconino County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 90.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $4.7 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). FEMA's modeled annual frequency is 0.0027 events per year. FEMA National Risk Index
  17. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), volcanic activity in Coconino County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 85.6 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $2,857 a year (rating Relatively Low). FEMA National Risk Index
  18. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), avalanche in Coconino County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 81.7 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $457,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 0.03 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 28 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  19. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), cold wave in Coconino County: Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate (score 80.2 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $3.2 million a year (rating Relatively Moderate). Annualized frequency 0.03 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of... FEMA National Risk Index
  20. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), heat wave in Coconino County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 63.9 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $600,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 1.47 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 18 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  21. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), ice storm in Coconino County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 57.5 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $103,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 0.01 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 68 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  22. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), hail in Coconino County: Risk Index rating Relatively Low (score 57.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $296,000 a year (rating Relatively Low). Annualized frequency 0.21 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 37 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  23. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), drought in Coconino County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 25.0 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $11,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 96.46 event-days per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 22 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  24. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), tornado in Coconino County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 24.3 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $296,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.81 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  25. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025), strong wind in Coconino County: Risk Index rating Very Low (score 14.4 of 100). Expected Annual Loss $101,000 a year (rating Very Low). Annualized frequency 0.07 events per year, from recorded occurrences over a period of record of 38 years. FEMA National Risk Index
  26. FEMA National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025) rates these hazards Not Applicable for Coconino County: coastal flooding, tsunami. FEMA uses Not Applicable when its source data has no historical record of the hazard in the community and the hazard is not considered geographically possible there. FEMA National Risk Index documentation
  27. NFIP Residential Penetration Rates (OpenFEMA, as of 2026-08-03): 733 residential flood insurance contracts were in force in Coconino County, out of 52,606 residential structures, a penetration rate of 1.4%. Inside FEMA's mapped Special Flood Hazard Area there were 1,073 residential structures and 318 contracts, a... OpenFEMA NFIP penetration rates
  28. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center is the official public source for flood maps (Flood Insurance Rate Maps) produced under the National Flood Insurance Program. Flood zones apply to specific properties: look up an address there or ask the local floodplain manager. County-level ratings do not tell you the flood zone of... FEMA Flood Map Service Center
  29. Most recent federal disaster declarations for natural hazards (table on this page). OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations

FEMA's National Risk Index compares each county with all other US counties. Ratings are relative (Very Low to Very High), not a measure of safety. Never call a place safe, unsafe, good or bad to live in. Risk Index and Expected Annual Loss values are FEMA estimates for planning. They do not predict next year's losses and do not apply to a single property. Flood zones are set by FEMA flood maps for specific properties. County ratings and flood insurance counts do not tell anyone whether an address is in a flood zone. Disaster declaration, NFIP and tornado counts are records of the past for this county only. Do not compare with other counties unless a fact does.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties, v1.20 (December 2025). Retrieved from fema.maps.arcgis.com on October 30, 2026. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.